October 5,2005

the stake?

今天在國際關係課中,老師談到rationality時,問了大家一個問題:

遊戲規則如下:

有個輪盤手槍指著你的頭,有百萬分之一的機會會射出子彈

 但如果"磞"完沒事,則可獲得一百萬($USD)

How many of you will play this game? ..... 

Almost everyone in the classroom raised  hand.


Why?

原來大家都這麼不要命? 有人甚至當機率變為五十分之一時,也還豪不猶豫的舉手

如果它們是理智的,

對我而言,他們也太低估了生命的價值,同時更高估$的用途。

(或許正逢我生病期間: Life is absolutely IMPORTANT!)

不知他們是不要命還是缺錢? (應該是前者吧!Because they are Americans.) 


Posted by yusea at 樂多Roodo! │04:43 │回應(13)引用(0) Issue Discussing
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推最後一段XD

我覺得美國人是:要命但更愛錢...|||
Posted by naiger at October 5,2005 21:24
i can't agree with the aforementioned opinion more!

they love their lives only,and discard the others for money's sake!
Posted by fan at October 5,2005 23:56
回頭想一想,用期望值來看,令生命價值為x,
(999999/1000000)*1000000-(x/1000000)>0
x<999999000000
死亡機率變1/50的時候,
(49/50)*1000000-(x/50)>0
x<49000000

我們常說生命無價,但從機率變化造成意願的改變,
是否暗示著每個人其實也把自己的生命量化了?

換個角度想,認為自己生命價值高於一兆美元的人,可能表示他的生活過得不錯,令他非常珍惜吧。

記得有個研究說傑出企業家和精神病患的人格特質很像,或許有這種冒險或瘋狂性格的人,才會賺大錢。

我想到的幾點面向,參考參考:p
Posted by 祐羽 at October 11,2005 23:23
沒錯,願意玩遊戲的人,不論機率為何,命早就量化了。之所以算都不用算,就是覺得生命價值是無限大吧:p

有趣的是,很多人認為有錢就會有好生活,所以值得冒險。我個人是沒這個膽,這前提也很主觀地不成立,況且這前提成立之時,不表示生活為最終目的嗎?
怎麼想怎麼怪,這遊戲像是為了贏得漂亮的手套但同時手可能被跺掉? (真是0與1的極端啊!)
這我倒認同,美國人的確有冒險犯難之精神。

還有,所有有理性的計算,果然都還是主觀價值左右一起。
Posted by yusea at October 12,2005 04:28
is 祐羽's surname Young?
Posted by Eric Li at October 14,2005 15:05
yes, 楊祐羽.
Do you know each other?
oh, I think you live pretty close to each other.

”任意六個人一定都可以找到二個人有共同認識的人”。雖然我一直懷疑這數據怎麼出來了,但真的看來這命中率還頗高。
Posted by yusea at October 14,2005 20:22
is he the one doing Finance at NTU?
Posted by Eric at October 15,2005 13:00
我是在財金系啊,
Eric先生是那一位呀?
Posted by Yang at October 15,2005 22:25
hihi, 我是李致啦。原來我們認識同一個人啊,世界真是很小一個。
Posted by Eric Li at October 16,2005 23:39
But when it comes to reality, the real situation is that seldom people would take the adventure with their life under threat.

(You may omit all the personal introduction... :0)

juven-idear.com
Posted by Juven at October 30,2005 10:09
I agree.
I was just surprised at the way people think.

PS.
Juven-idear.com is really colorful.
That is definitely the best personal introduction.
Posted by yusea at November 9,2005 10:03
holy smokes. this is one small world. my admiration of google has once again moved up to a much higher level. all it took is to type up a couple of names, and bam, i've been led to quite a few blogs where my elementary school classmates visit regularly.

to be honest, i was extremely surprised when i came across with the fact that our elementary school all-time top student mr. yang signed up for the faculty of finances. i had always pictured him ending up with either engineering, or law, if not in medical school.

regardless, i wish him the best, whether he will come back to read this message or not. it's been ages since i sat in the same classroom with him. however, i believe he has only gotten smarter, just like i have as well. haha!

when i was a kid, i had always wanted to go to NTU. that was my ultimate dream. things changed, and i moved to another country, but this is when i finally realized that the dream that i had always so helplessly clung on to was never the dream that i was meant to chase after because what i end up with at the end is so much, much more fulfilling and grants me much more happiness.

when a door is shut, there's always a window wide open, and look ahead! there is beauty hidden within what you were previously reluctant to glance out of the window.

宋婉嫣
Posted by Mimiboo at June 25,2006 03:45
hi,
It is a small world. I've already sent your message to Yang. I believe he will reply you soon.
Nice to meet you. You are the first guest I have for these days.
Posted by yusea at June 26,2006 23:16