October 5,2005
the stake?
今天在國際關係課中,老師談到rationality時,問了大家一個問題:
遊戲規則如下:
有個輪盤手槍指著你的頭,有百萬分之一的機會會射出子彈
但如果"磞"完沒事,則可獲得一百萬($USD)
How many of you will play this game? .....
Almost everyone in the classroom raised hand.
Why?
原來大家都這麼不要命? 有人甚至當機率變為五十分之一時,也還豪不猶豫的舉手
如果它們是理智的,
對我而言,他們也太低估了生命的價值,同時更高估$的用途。
(或許正逢我生病期間: Life is absolutely IMPORTANT!)
不知他們是不要命還是缺錢? (應該是前者吧!Because they are Americans.)
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推最後一段XD
我覺得美國人是:要命但更愛錢...|||
我覺得美國人是:要命但更愛錢...|||
Posted by naiger
at October 5,2005 21:24
i can't agree with the aforementioned opinion more!
they love their lives only,and discard the others for money's sake!
they love their lives only,and discard the others for money's sake!
Posted by fan
at October 5,2005 23:56
回頭想一想,用期望值來看,令生命價值為x,
(999999/1000000)*1000000-(x/1000000)>0
x<999999000000
死亡機率變1/50的時候,
(49/50)*1000000-(x/50)>0
x<49000000
我們常說生命無價,但從機率變化造成意願的改變,
是否暗示著每個人其實也把自己的生命量化了?
換個角度想,認為自己生命價值高於一兆美元的人,可能表示他的生活過得不錯,令他非常珍惜吧。
記得有個研究說傑出企業家和精神病患的人格特質很像,或許有這種冒險或瘋狂性格的人,才會賺大錢。
我想到的幾點面向,參考參考:p
(999999/1000000)*1000000-(x/1000000)>0
x<999999000000
死亡機率變1/50的時候,
(49/50)*1000000-(x/50)>0
x<49000000
我們常說生命無價,但從機率變化造成意願的改變,
是否暗示著每個人其實也把自己的生命量化了?
換個角度想,認為自己生命價值高於一兆美元的人,可能表示他的生活過得不錯,令他非常珍惜吧。
記得有個研究說傑出企業家和精神病患的人格特質很像,或許有這種冒險或瘋狂性格的人,才會賺大錢。
我想到的幾點面向,參考參考:p
Posted by 祐羽
at October 11,2005 23:23
沒錯,願意玩遊戲的人,不論機率為何,命早就量化了。之所以算都不用算,就是覺得生命價值是無限大吧:p
有趣的是,很多人認為有錢就會有好生活,所以值得冒險。我個人是沒這個膽,這前提也很主觀地不成立,況且這前提成立之時,不表示生活為最終目的嗎?
怎麼想怎麼怪,這遊戲像是為了贏得漂亮的手套但同時手可能被跺掉? (真是0與1的極端啊!)
這我倒認同,美國人的確有冒險犯難之精神。
還有,所有有理性的計算,果然都還是主觀價值左右一起。
有趣的是,很多人認為有錢就會有好生活,所以值得冒險。我個人是沒這個膽,這前提也很主觀地不成立,況且這前提成立之時,不表示生活為最終目的嗎?
怎麼想怎麼怪,這遊戲像是為了贏得漂亮的手套但同時手可能被跺掉? (真是0與1的極端啊!)
這我倒認同,美國人的確有冒險犯難之精神。
還有,所有有理性的計算,果然都還是主觀價值左右一起。
Posted by yusea
at October 12,2005 04:28
is 祐羽's surname Young?
Posted by Eric Li
at October 14,2005 15:05
yes, 楊祐羽.
Do you know each other?
oh, I think you live pretty close to each other.
”任意六個人一定都可以找到二個人有共同認識的人”。雖然我一直懷疑這數據怎麼出來了,但真的看來這命中率還頗高。
Do you know each other?
oh, I think you live pretty close to each other.
”任意六個人一定都可以找到二個人有共同認識的人”。雖然我一直懷疑這數據怎麼出來了,但真的看來這命中率還頗高。
Posted by yusea
at October 14,2005 20:22
is he the one doing Finance at NTU?
Posted by Eric
at October 15,2005 13:00
我是在財金系啊,
Eric先生是那一位呀?
Eric先生是那一位呀?
Posted by Yang
at October 15,2005 22:25
hihi, 我是李致啦。原來我們認識同一個人啊,世界真是很小一個。
Posted by Eric Li
at October 16,2005 23:39
But when it comes to reality, the real situation is that seldom people would take the adventure with their life under threat.
(You may omit all the personal introduction... :0)
juven-idear.com
(You may omit all the personal introduction... :0)
juven-idear.com
Posted by Juven
at October 30,2005 10:09
I agree.
I was just surprised at the way people think.
PS.
Juven-idear.com is really colorful.
That is definitely the best personal introduction.
I was just surprised at the way people think.
PS.
Juven-idear.com is really colorful.
That is definitely the best personal introduction.
Posted by yusea
at November 9,2005 10:03
holy smokes. this is one small world. my admiration of google has once again moved up to a much higher level. all it took is to type up a couple of names, and bam, i've been led to quite a few blogs where my elementary school classmates visit regularly.
to be honest, i was extremely surprised when i came across with the fact that our elementary school all-time top student mr. yang signed up for the faculty of finances. i had always pictured him ending up with either engineering, or law, if not in medical school.
regardless, i wish him the best, whether he will come back to read this message or not. it's been ages since i sat in the same classroom with him. however, i believe he has only gotten smarter, just like i have as well. haha!
when i was a kid, i had always wanted to go to NTU. that was my ultimate dream. things changed, and i moved to another country, but this is when i finally realized that the dream that i had always so helplessly clung on to was never the dream that i was meant to chase after because what i end up with at the end is so much, much more fulfilling and grants me much more happiness.
when a door is shut, there's always a window wide open, and look ahead! there is beauty hidden within what you were previously reluctant to glance out of the window.
宋婉嫣
to be honest, i was extremely surprised when i came across with the fact that our elementary school all-time top student mr. yang signed up for the faculty of finances. i had always pictured him ending up with either engineering, or law, if not in medical school.
regardless, i wish him the best, whether he will come back to read this message or not. it's been ages since i sat in the same classroom with him. however, i believe he has only gotten smarter, just like i have as well. haha!
when i was a kid, i had always wanted to go to NTU. that was my ultimate dream. things changed, and i moved to another country, but this is when i finally realized that the dream that i had always so helplessly clung on to was never the dream that i was meant to chase after because what i end up with at the end is so much, much more fulfilling and grants me much more happiness.
when a door is shut, there's always a window wide open, and look ahead! there is beauty hidden within what you were previously reluctant to glance out of the window.
宋婉嫣
Posted by Mimiboo
at June 25,2006 03:45
hi,
It is a small world. I've already sent your message to Yang. I believe he will reply you soon.
Nice to meet you. You are the first guest I have for these days.
It is a small world. I've already sent your message to Yang. I believe he will reply you soon.
Nice to meet you. You are the first guest I have for these days.
Posted by yusea
at June 26,2006 23:16