InnoNation Reloaded

美國經常賬逆差與其說是美國揮霍造成的，還不如說是其他地 區過度節儉的結果，這一概念已成爲今年經濟學爭論的主題。

one of the factors driving recent developments in the U.S. current account has been the very substantial shift in the current accounts of developing and emerging-market nations, a shift that has transformed these countries from net borrowers on international capital markets to large net lenders. This shift by developing nations, together with the high saving propensities of Germany, Japan, and some other major industrial nations, has resulted in a global saving glut. This increased supply of saving boosted U.S. equity values during the period of the stock market boom and helped to increase U.S. home values during the more recent period, as a consequence lowering U.S. national saving and contributing to the nation's rising current account deficit. （重點為此處附加）

we simply shouldn’t read too much into the decline in real long-term interest rates over the last 20 years. Historically, real rates have jumped around a lot, showing little correlation with asset prices. Whatever their other benefits, the low rates we see around the world now hardly amount to insurance against future drops in asset prices.

關於全球儲蓄過量的言談四處可見。然而事實上，對全球經濟 造成損害的不是儲蓄太多，而是投資太少。
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目前狀況的根源在於過去十年裏由過度投資引發的一系列危機，特別是日本資産泡沫的破滅、亞洲和拉美新興市場的危機、以及工業國家IT泡沫的破滅。從那以 後，投資衰退了，而且復蘇非常緩慢。
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將這種情況稱作“儲蓄過量”確實容易誤導人，因爲這個詞的隱含意思是出現經常專案盈餘的國家應該減少對國內儲蓄 的鼓勵。但如果問題在於投資不足，則減少鼓勵會導致抑制投資的因素消失後出現過高的實際利率。相反，政策應該以撤銷對消費的過度刺激、放鬆抑制投資的限制 爲目標。