InnoNation Reloaded

朋友們臆測的五四示威沒有發生（五四：2005年的未爆彈？），倒是看到了這樣的新聞：

上海在上月中旬爆發十萬人反日示威遊行，當局拘捕幕後策畫者，一名在網上鼓動示威的網友被判刑五年，成為大陸反日浪潮中首名被判刑人士。

中國網友fermi在這則新聞摘要之後，說著：

我對政府失望到家了,需要民間反日力量來增加自己在國際上的話語權的時候,就極盡其能的宣傳反日抗日,並且縱容反日示威中的暴力;看到國際輿論並不支持自己,甚至還嘲笑中國歷史課本沒有的東西美化的事實一點也不亞與日本的時候,卻來個兔死狗烹（什麼叫兔死狗烹）

從社會科學的角度，誰是這些「兔死狗烹」的中國民族主義者？當然是個謎情。有人如是觀察著：

Nationalism has never been a part of Chinese culture is most apparent among China’s urban youth population, with rural areas displaying little aggressive nationalism, and if anything displaying a self protective isolationism rather than the agressive xenophobia becoming apparent in some of China's cities.

Many of China’s nationalists appear to be young single men on the lower bounds of China’s middle classes, who have sufficient education and access to information to see the state of play in countries like Japan and America. They find themselves lacking the resources and opportunities to rise to the level of their foreign counterparts and upon seeing nations that they regard as being ‘lesser states’ remaining ahead of China, are looking for somebody to blame.

Much of this frustration at China's situation is coming out as anti-Japanese sentiment and the belief that China’s poverty and low world status is due to the repression and exploitation of the Chinese people by foreign powers, rather than the acceptance that the Chinese mentality has historically favored slow movement and stability over the introduction of new ideas, and that the majority of exploitation since the birth of modern China has been conducted by other Chinese.
（Death to Japan, and America, and Sweden and ….: Freedom of speech is alive and well for Chinese nationalists）

按照這個觀察，中國的極端民族主義乃是一種都會現象，而且是以都會的下層中產階級為其主要社會基盤的。這種以「都會小資」為主要社群的特點，似乎也意味著：這種極端民族主義，儘管對中國的外交關係持有高度好戰的立場（作為難以攀爬社會階梯的心理補償？），但是，在國內改革議題上，卻是十足的保守派。

於是，相異於二十世紀初期的五四運動觀點，從當今中國的極端民族主義者（中國五四救亡圖強運動的後代子民？）看來，中國發展所存在的種種問題，根源都是來自外部的陰謀，而非中國自身在文化或制度上的弱質。

如果這樣的觀察是可以成立的，也就無怪乎關於中國「新五四運動」的期待，不得不落空了。