February 15,2011

政.商.名嘴

鴻海公司老闆郭台銘用五百萬買下前衛生署長楊志良的公事包,楊志良以衛生署長的身分告三立鄭弘儀等七大名嘴,這樣的劇本只能說很戲劇性.

Paul Krugman為文批評美國共和黨刪減政府支出的心態,其中有段文字值得借鑑:
How can we expect voters to appreciate fiscal reality when politicians consistently misrepresent that reality?

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February 14,2011

又見哲學家

亞禮士多德.jpg
哲學家這個名詞在電視名嘴泛濫的台灣已經很久沒有人提及了.然而,人類文明的發展,國家社會的走向與哲學思想實在有太多的關連,馬克思主義,民主思想/政治,資本主義/經濟哪一個背後不是哲學思想.中華文化在中世紀以來遠落後西方,其於思想研究的匱乏其實是很重要的原因.

英國經濟學人週刊2011年1月29日的書評評鑑"Examined Lives: From Socrates to Nietzsche",又讓人聯想到"風簷展書讀,古道照顏色".哲學思辯,妙哉!

該評鑑部份引述如下:
In 11 biographical sketches of thinkers who tried to tread in Socrates’s footsteps, plus one on Socrates himself, James Miller explores what it means to follow the philosophical calling. Much trouble and uncertainty seems to be the answer, and some of the most famous philosophers turn out not to be all that admirable or convincing, he finds. So can philosophy inspire a way of life?

--作者的答案:
philosophical self-examination is not a reliable source of happiness or political nous. Still, there are many philosophers, including Aristotle, who regarded the quest for understanding as an end in itself, not as a path to joy or success. After all, as most of those who have been bitten by the philosophy bug will know, philosophers philosophise mainly because they cannot help it.

ps:希望國內有出版社願意翻譯/出版.

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September 17,2010

又見莫尼漢












經濟學人再度介紹關於莫尼漢的新書:
"Daniel Patrick Moynihan: A Portrait in Letters of an American Visionary."
 Edited by Steven Weisman. PublicAffairs; 671 pages; $35.

"There can be no better bedside collection for anyone who is interested in the history of America and the world in thesecond half of the 20th century-or in a life lived bravely."


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August 20,2010

醬缸 vs 系統

經濟學人書評書目
Who killed the Soviet economy? "
A brilliant detective story asks what went wrong"

Red Plenty: Industry! Progress! Abundance! Inside the Fifties’ Soviet Dream. By Francis Spufford. Faber & Faber; 434 pages; £16.99.

He has shown in human detail how and why the system was believable. Such sympathy saves the book from sneering. One way the author makes his characters come alive is by not crediting them with more than they knew or letting them see further than they could have done. When you are in a system, any system, it is hard to imagine yourself in another. Mr Spufford, who has turned the trick, knows how hard. He has no need to hammer the point—but “Red Plenty” is also a lesson against any Western smugness.
...繼續閱讀

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August 17,2010

中國第二,日本第三

星期一以後,中國正式超越日本,成為世界第二大經濟體,這對世界政經局勢影響甚大,但各方解讀不一,
2.中日經濟大戰--中國時報

先看標題,中時真的聳動.
再談內容,中時硬扯上"政治正確".

如果日本這種規模的國家都必須因應國際形勢而調整,台灣就更不用說了。奇的是,民進黨至今卻還抱著創黨時的教條不放,視所有「調整」為賣台,這樣的政治恐龍還真少有!

有趣的是,中時在8/19的短評馬上改稱,GDP的"質"比"量"重要,認為中國雖然在量超過日本,但中國的人均GDP仍非常低,需要努力改進,但中時"傾中"的馬尾在最後一句話仍露出來:
  • GDP「質」比「量」重要

  • 2010-08-19
  •  
  • 中國時報
  •  
  • 【本報訊】
  •    大陸今年第二季的國內生產毛額(GDP)正式超越日本,在兩大經濟體經濟成長率有相當大的差距下,大陸今年肯定能成為全球第二大經濟體。不過,在量體超越後,接下去「質」的提升才是更重要、且更難的課題。

...繼續閱讀

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August 16,2010

台灣資本主義?


Taiwan industrial polocy
國家資本主義(state capitalism)因為美國金融危機再度引發世人的關切,中國的經濟發展模式(business model)即國家資本主義,且引以為傲,究竟一國的經濟發展應放手由民間遵循巿場變化而自然發生,或由國家主導,挑選重點產業發展,仍有得辯.

英國經濟學人雜誌一向反對干涉巿場,它最近一篇評論國家資本主義的文章,提到台灣,依數據看,台灣政府似乎在挑選重點產業發展的積效不錯,不知馬英九政府的ECFA可否視為重點產業?

perspectives發表於 樂多13:39回應(0)引用(0)經濟

網聚 對談

A cluster is where ideas are shared, debated, promulgated.

全球化時代,一般以為會破除地理位置的重要性,錯!任何形式的相聚可以腦力激盪,個人與國家社會才會成長,sillicon vally人才濟濟才是它君臨天下科技發展的關鍵.

無法實質相聚,何妨網上相聚,對談一番

perspectives發表於 樂多10:26回應(0)引用(0)cluster

June 27,2010

油價暴衝,誰之過?

2007六月原油每桶價格美金65元,2008年七月暴漲至145元,2008年十二月暴跌至45元。誰造成的?

 

price vs demand of crude oil

很多人怪罪投資與投機客,不過,OECD最近的一份報告(“Speculation and Financial Fund Activity”, Draft Report, OECD Trade and Agriculture Directorate)卻認為投資與投機客並無力造成巿場價格的暴衝:

"the OECD study found that there was “no convincing evidence that positions held by index traders…impact market returns”"

那誰該負責?

該報告認為在供需極端緊繃(close)的巿場,如原油巿場,任何一方的細微變化都可能造成另一方的暴衝,暴漲或暴跌都可能2007年到2008年的油價暴衝正是這種現象

"if supply and demand are in close balance (as they were in the oil market), even very small changes in either component can lead to large price shifts."

所以,情況應該是中國與印度等新興國家對原油的需求增加,打破供需的緊繃關係,於是油價在一年半內先暴漲,接者暴跌。

原物料的價格和原油一樣,都可能呈現這種暴衝的價格現象。

"Similarly, in boom conditions commodity consumers will be so desperate to get their hands on raw materials that they will drive prices up to absurd levels, at least for a short time. When demand falters, or new supply shows up, the price bubble can evaporate as quickly as it arose, without a speculator in sight"

----Economist, 2010, No.26



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仿冒精品害消費者鄙視自己

精品名牌人人愛,但精品名牌價格高檔不是每個人都付得起,仿冒品遂層出不窮,消費者也樂於以假亂真,於是滿街上多的是仿冒品,穿戴仿冒品的消費者因此沾沾自喜,對嗎?

錯!美國密西根大學的Francesca Gino在心理學雜誌(Psychological Science)發表論文認為,穿戴仿冒品讓消費者感覺自己也不真實,並使消費者不誠實。

"wearing fake goods makes you feel a fake yourself, and causes you to be more dishonest in other matters than you would otherwise be."

下次,若人提供你仿冒品,謹記,穿戴仿冒品會使你變成壞人,而不是更好的人("Next time you are offered fake accessories, beware: wearing them can make you feel like a bad person, not a better one.")。

                                    ---Economist, 2010, No.26



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希臘羅馬再現

"Full Circle: How the Classical World Came Back to Us. By Ferdinand Mount. Simon & Schuster; 438 pages; £20."

本書作者認為當今世界基督教式微,“the art of religion”變成“the religion of art”,世人對肉體(physical)與觀念(mental attitudes)都轉向希臘羅馬時期,以肉體而言,我們重視身體,跑健身房、進澡堂與spa,與希臘羅馬人無異;在觀念方面,滾石合唱團主唱Mick Jaggersatisfaction的看法幾幾乎被視為世人的demigod,羅馬人迷戀名人(celebrity),現代人又何嘗多讓。

如果該作者的看法是對的,那麼,現代的移民是不是可以視為當時的奴隸,現在的世足賽是當年神鬼戰士(gladiators)再現嗎?

英國《經濟學人》雜誌如何看待作者的觀察?“arresting and disturbing”。----Economist, 2010, No.26

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