影像墨爾本

It is without a doubt that oil over the last 100 years can be said to be the impetus of the world’s economic growth, it has brought to us convenience, modernization, increased productivity and efficiency which the world has not seen prior to its discovery. However, the recent effects of Hurricane Katrina on America’s domestic oil supply and the ever rising costs of oil around the world, has resulted many consumers like myself beginning to question the future viability on the continuance in the consumption oil into the 21 century.

“The End of Oil” was a book which I bought earlier this year and one that I thoroughly enjoyed reading. It is a detailed, mainstream, calm assessment of where we are with the carbon fuel economy. Clearly, the book questions whether the world is running out oil, and if so how long, and what will happen to those countries heavily reliant on imported oil when supplies run out? History has shown that supply for the past 100 years were able to kept up with demand, however, demand is expected to increase to 45 billion barrels per annum within in 15 years, with current demand standing approximately at 30 billion barrels. The question posed by the writer is whether oil companies are able to meet this increased demand with sufficient supply? The book provides a detailed analysis which in the end makes readers hard to conclude with an optimistic outlook on the reliance of oil into the future. 

The book is divided into three parts. The first part is a description of how the United States managed to secure Middle East Oil and its association with the Saudi Royal Family ever since when Theodore Roosevelt was president. The second section then on describes the growing economies of China and India and their own ever-growing thirst for more petroleum in order to ensure their country’s road to modernization. China, which is now the second largest consuming oil country after the US, currently consumes approximately 2.5 billion barrels a year. Modernization of the Chinese economy has seen a car boom in China, and this has clearly made a deep impact on energy demand around the world, and is believed to be the reason for the increasing price of petrol for which we are paying. The book raises an example whereby in 1995, 64 per cent of the local Shanghai population either walked or used bicycles, with cars only accounting for 5 per cent. However, by the turn of the millennium, cars have tripled to 15 per cent and are expected to account for 50% by 2020 as the preferred mode of transportation by Shanghai’s local population. Therefore, the discovery and production of new oil producing countries such as Angola, Nigeria and Russia are ever quickly guzzled up by the roaring Chinese Dragon economy and South Asia’s Indian giant.

The book is also critical on the level of energy consumption in the US, as public awareness about energy issues are non-existent since the last oil shock in the 1970’s. It also makes a comparison of the attitudes between the Japanese and American car producers whereby Japanese car makers are continuingly striving for car efficiency and fuel economy, while American car companies continue to produce large SUVs (four wheel drive) which are ‘gas-guzzling’ and fuel inefficient in order to satisfy local consumer preference and demand. However, with the recent sharp increases in  the petrol prices will surely make these US consumers think twice before purchasing.  Statistics are also backed showing that the US alone is responsible for consuming 25% of the world’s known fossil fuel energy and yet it only represents approximately 7% of the world population. 

Towards the end, the book discusses other alternatives of energy such as hydrogen, wind power, solar, fuel cells, clear coal and nuclear energy. However, the possibilities of utilizing these alternative or renewable energy are still limited and still at innovative stages. The conclusion is that at some point of time in the future, the world must simply use less energy than it does currently.

Last night on television showed a movie which I saw called the “Oil Storm”, a movie depicting the consequences of America’s reliance on oil in a series of delectable “what if” worst-case scenarios. If you didn’t see the movie (which was aired in mid-June 2005 in the US), here it is in a nutshell: a category four hurricane destroys New Orleans and a vital pipeline in the Gulf of Mexico, panic sweeps the nation with speculation driving the price of crude oil higher and higher. The U.S. government turns to Saudi Arabia for oil, however, is disrupted with Saudi extremists committing terrorist attacks, killing American oil workers and destroying oil refinaries. This resulted in America sending troops to Saudi Arabia to protect its interest and ensuring cheap source of fuel. However, there is still major traffic congestion at the gas stations due to the Saudi delay, with Americans beginning to turn against each other with the economy spiraling to a recession and mayhem. The U.S. government decides to turn to Russia for oil, which were out- bided by China as a sign of American economy bowing to the Chinese, before the Russians deciding to proceed in helping the US in return for an investment in the upgrade of their oil pipelines. The Russian supply results in oil falling from a high of $153 a barrel down to around $77.

The “mock-umentary” might seem a bit absurd. However, it is a bit freaky to think that the occurrence of Hurricane Katrina earlier this month was similar to the abovementioned ‘mock-umentary’ which was aired in June this year in the US. The devastation of Hurricane Katrina resulted in oil-rigs in the southern Gulf been destroyed, thus reducing 15% total capacity of America’s oil production, and pushed the oil price to over $USD70 per barrel which resulted the US government in releasing their SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserves) in order to stabilize the price of crude oil.

In conclusion, unless we begin to find alternative renewable energy or a more efficient ways of utilizing current fossil fuel energy available, the world will sooner rather than later face a situation of economic stagnation and possibly a decline into the depression that has not occurred since the 1920’s.