犁夢居手札{Montpellier南法留學日記}

華爾街日報：消費券太輕率

對於台灣發放3,600元消費券，華爾街日報亞洲版21日的社論批評這是一種「輕率的計畫」（harebrained scheme），不僅收效甚小，而且債留未來，倒不如減稅與改革缺乏效率的法規制度，才能真正促進台灣的經濟發展。

該社論指出，馬英九總統的民意滿意度已經跌到20%出頭，他可能希望藉消費券轉移選民注意，不去檢視在馬政府治下經濟萎縮、股市腰斬的事實。

對於馬政府所估，消費券可在明年促進0.64個百分點的國內生產毛額增長，華爾街日報亞洲版非常懷疑，因為經濟狀況不佳的消費者傾向把消費券用在不得不花的錢，然後把「多出來」的錢存起來。

社論批評，消費券僅是馬政府欠缺思慮的政策之一，其他還包括股市禁止放空到年底，以及動用150億美元政府基金進場護盤股市。這些可能都是當下在政治上受歡迎、長遠來說卻對經濟不利的政策。

$100 for All - Taiwan's misdirected stimulus effort.

From today's Wall Street Journal Asia

The global financial crisis has given rise to many harebrained schemes around Asia (see: Japan, stimulus plan of), and to that list add Taiwan's latest policy outing: shopping coupons worth $100 for every man, woman and child.

The giveaway is slated to start in time for the Chinese New Year holidays early next year and will set the government back some $83 billion Taiwan dollars ($2.5 billion). Taiwanese residents need only take their ID cards to the nearest housing registration office or post office to receive the vouchers, which can be redeemed at registered stores and restaurants.

President Ma Ying-jeou's popularity ratings are in the low 20s, and perhaps he hopes this will distract voters from the fact that so far on his watch, GDP growth is contracting and the stock market is down by over 50%. The Taiwan government predicts the vouchers will boost GDP by some 0.64% next year, but color us skeptical. Wavering consumers are more likely to spend the coupon on things they'd buy anyway and save the "spare" money.

Mr. Ma will have to look elsewhere for meaningful stimulus. Rather than saddling future taxpayers with debt for what will be at best a slight temporary relief, better to boost the economy by cutting taxes and reforming inefficient regulatory structures. A World Bank survey released last month put Taiwan in 61st place globally for ease of doing business, down from 58th place last year -- definitely an area that could use improvement.

The voucher program is just one of several ill-conceived ways Taiwan has tried to tackle the crisis: The stock exchange has banned short selling until the end of this year, and a $15 billion government stabilization fund has plowed millions into the stock exchange since September in an effort to shore up prices.

Faced with a global financial downturn, Taiwan's response hasn't been entirely negative. Significant tax cuts were announced as part of a stimulus plan in September, and trade with China is becoming easier thanks to the recent political détente. But to really weather the crisis, Taiwan's leaders will need to separate the good ideas from the bad. A policy that may be politically popular today won't be smart economics tomorrow.