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Aussie dlr dips after hitting fresh high on data
Thursday April 12, 2007, 4:33 pm

By Daniel Morrissey

SYDNEY, April 12 (Reuters) - The Australian dollar jumped to its highest since October 1990 on Thursday when March domestic employment data bolstered speculation interest rates might rise here later this year, but later dipped on profit taking.

Analysts said the local currency, which peaked at $0.8273 shortly after the jobs report, had met tough technical resistance while some investors remain nervous about its elevated levels.

Underpinning support for the Aussie is the greater risk of Australia's central bank lifting rates as early as next month, firmer base metals prices, foreign takeover activity in local companies and the general strength of the domestic economy.

"At this stage I'm happy to be just that little bit short, not for a big pullback but I do think we will get a pullback, probably limited to somewhere around that $0.8220 area," said Glen Whittingslow, head of foreign exchange at St George Bank.

"But I don't necessarily see us getting up through that $0.8280 area in the next 12 to 24 hours."

At 4 p.m. (0600 GMT) the Aussie dollar AUD= was quoted at $0.8245/48 compared with $0.8244/47 here late on Wednesday, according to Reuters data. Its session low of $0.8233 was briefly touched before the March employment report was released.

Overall employment rose by 10,500 in March, a little less than expected, data showed. But full-time jobs jumped a hefty 31,700 and the jobless rate dropped a tenth of a percentage point to 4.5 percent, matching a 31-year low seen in January.

The report illustrated that the labour market remained tight especially with the unemployment rate falling, Commonwealth Bank of Australia chief currency strategist Richard Grace said. "We remain bullish on the Australian dollar," said Grace, who forecasts that the currency will eventually reach $0.8550.

The Aussie also eased against the Japanese currency. The Aussie/yen cross AUDJPY=R had earlier touched a fresh 10-year high of 98.71 yen after the International Monetary Fund said it saw no need to get "heavy-handed" on yen carry trades.

A carry trade involves borrowing low-yielding currencies such as the yen to invest in high-yielding currencies like the Aussie.

The Aussie has rallied as much as 7.7 percent since it fell to a 16-week low of $0.7682 on March 6 after investors unwound riskier bets like carry trades amid gyrations on stock markets.

Hawkish comments by a senior Australian central bank official just four weeks ago sparked this rally in the Aussie, although the central bank held rates steady at 6.25 percent this month.

Financial markets now price a 63 percent chance Australia's central bank would lift interest rates by 25 basis points to 6.50 percent at its May meeting, a Credit Suisse report said. That compared with a probability of 57 percent on Wednesday.

Credit Suisse also said financial markets were now pricing in a 20 percent chance of a further rate rise over the next 12 months. That risk was priced at 8 percent the previous day.

Still, economists had mixed views on whether the latest jobs data were enough for the central bank, which has a tightening bias, to lift rates in May. Some analysts said the consumer price data on April 24 will decide the near-term outlook for rates.

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三個月前

澳洲兩銀行對澳幣走勢預測南轅北轍

根據彭博社報導，澳洲兩大銀行共和銀行 (Commonwealth Bank of Australia)以及國民銀行 (National Australia Bank Ltd.)對澳幣今年的走勢預測南轅北轍。澳洲共和銀行預測澳幣兌美元在今年6月以前可能走升4%，至1990年以來新高，主要拜商品出口需求帶動。 澳洲第一大銀行 -- 國民銀行則預測，隨著原物料價格下挫，澳幣在今年上半年將貶值9%。在鐵礦石、銅和鋅等原物料價格上漲至歷史新高的推波助瀾下，澳幣去年升幅居2003年以來之冠。

澳洲共和銀行預期澳幣將在年中觸頂，而今年全年料貶值3%，反觀，澳洲國民銀行預估澳幣全年將貶值9%。澳洲共和銀行駐雪梨資深外匯分析師RichardGrace在上月22日的報告中指出，預期商品價格可望持續支撐澳幣，在全球成長強勁的環境下，澳幣將有一番表態。

威靈頓時間早上7時13分，澳幣兌美元報1澳幣兌79.60美分。Grace預測，澳幣兌美元在6月30日以前可能升抵80美分，甚至向上挑戰82.5美分，年底可能報77美分。稍早一度來到79.90美分，達2005年3月以來最高。

澳幣兌美元在過去10年期間僅有一天升破80美分關卡，時間落在2004年2月18日，當時升抵80.05美分。Grace 在去年5月準確預測到澳幣兌美元匯率在年底達79美分。根據澳洲共和銀行預測，只要中國的經濟成長率維持8%至10%，美國經濟成長放緩不至於重挫全球原物料需求。

商品出口對澳洲國內生產毛額 (GDP)的貢獻達13.5%。中國是澳洲第二大海外市場。拜中國需求激增所賜，追蹤在倫敦金屬交易市場交易的6種金屬指數去年暴漲54%。澳洲
民銀行分析師John Kyriakopoulo則表示，全球經濟成長放緩將壓低商品價格。

Kyriakopoulos在上月21日的研究報告中指出「我們不預期經濟將有利2007年澳幣的表現。成長率將下滑至2.2%，失業率將竄升，國內支出將下滑。」Kyriakopoulos預估澳幣兌美元匯率今年年中以前將下滑至72美分，年底下看73美分，較彭博社針對36名分析師調查預估中值的年中達77美分和年底報74美分來得悲觀。

Kyriakopoulos稱澳幣兌美元「不大可能」升破80大關。澳洲國民銀行預估，受全球經濟成長減速影響，商品價格在未來2年將下跌近2成，建議客戶今年買進比較不受全球成長影響的歐元和瑞士法郎。澳洲政府在去年12月將至6月30日的12個月經濟成長率預估由先前的3.25%下修至2.5%。澳洲央行去年3度升息，將基準利率調高至6.25%的6年以來新高，增添澳洲金融資產和澳幣的吸金魅力。去年全年，澳幣兌美元升值8%。

（中央社)
最後更新 ( 2007/01/13, Saturday )