2008-11 月份文章 顯示方式:簡文 | 列表

2008年11月12日

The Opportunities and Challenges of Closer Cross-Strait Economic and Trade Relations

Contents:
1. Introduction
2. Some Features of Cross-Strait Economic Relations
3. “Normalization” as Political Rhetoric, Trade Policy and Economic Statecraft
4. One Caveat: China’s Capital
5. Conclusion: “Good fences make good neighbors”


Abstract
One of the harsh challenges to Taiwan is to find ways to capitalize on the opportunities presented by China while addresses uncertainties brought by China, especially the Angst for loss of sovereignty. Namely, how to ensure Taiwan’s sovereignty and to effectively manage the cross-strait economic relations, particularly under the circumstance of increasing economic integration between both sides and Beijing’s refusal to recognize Taiwan as a negotiation entity, not to mention as a sovereign state.
The Taiwanese subjectivity awareness (台灣主體意識) would not only merit the fortification of our sovereignty but also provide the operational advantages for domestic political process and economic development.
The reasons why “normalization of cross-strait economic and trade relations” is one of the best strategies for Taiwan are discussed, mainly including for its own sake in terms of economic efficiency and to free itself from the shadow of China regarding economic statecraft. However, Taiwan should proceed with extreme caution over the preferential trade deals with China, not to mention propose them, given China is blockading Taiwan’s FTAs with other countries in general and the participation in East Asia’s regionalism in particular.
Another caveat of the normalization of cross-strait economic relations is regarding how to deal with “China’s capital”. The principle of due diligence procedures is suggested since most part of China’s outward FDI is controlled by Chinese government.

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亞太經濟合作會議(APEC)與領袖代表連戰

數次當不成「領袖」的連戰,終於在今年成為我國的APEC「領袖代表」,當然,很大的一部份原因在於連爺爺是北京喜歡甚至欽點的人選。2005年的「連胡會」主軸在於「聯共制台」,配合當年三月的「反分裂法」,相當程度讓北京取得對台政治戰略利益,連戰可謂功不可沒。 ...繼續閱讀

Posted by honigmann at 23:38回應(0)引用(0)

全球經濟失衡的金融危機與兩岸經貿意涵

全球經濟失衡主要源於美國與中國、日本等東亞國家,加上海灣油源國家之間的大量貿易失衡,以及這些國家所相應增加的巨額外匯存底。貿易失衡容易引發貿易摩擦與保護主義,近來方興未艾的「主權財富基金」(Sovereign Wealth Fund),以及在美國低利率環境下所孕育的全球金融危機,相當程度也都跟這些國家(必須)處置外匯存底的方式密切相關。 ...繼續閱讀

Posted by honigmann at 23:37回應(0)引用(0)經濟政策與經濟戰略

東亞經濟整合與台灣的FTA策略環境

區域經濟整合包括「實際上」(de facto)與「法律上」(de jure)兩種層次,前者指市場面(商品與服務貿易,以及資本與勞動移動)的整合,亦即區域化(regionalization),後者則涉及政府間的政策協調、制度面合作,乃至協定的簽署,或稱之為區域主義(regionalism)。 ...繼續閱讀

Posted by honigmann at 23:36回應(0)引用(0)經濟整合與區域主義

全球金融危機與中國角色

有人曾打趣說:為什麼金融很重要?因為常常會發生危機。至於列寧所說的金融是資本主義的「阿奇里斯後腳跟」(唯一的弱點),倒是一語道盡金融本身的風險特質與脆弱性。爆發於去年8月美國次級房貸、至今愈演愈烈的全球金融危機,第一回合才剛結束就逼得七大工業國家(中國也主動配合)聯手降息,截至目前歐美各國也已分別挹注至少兩兆五千億美金抒困或國有化部分問題金融機構,雖然效果如何仍在未定之天,但以其規模之大與牽涉層面之廣,可說自1930年代大蕭條以來所僅見。 ...繼續閱讀

Posted by honigmann at 23:34回應(0)引用(0)中國經濟探索

兩岸經濟整合與心態依賴

儘管中國早在2000年就已取代美國成為台灣最大的出口市場,並在2002年成為最大的貿易伙伴,但IMF新近的報告卻也顯示,美國經濟一旦衰退對台灣(另一個是新加坡)的衝擊最大,彼端經濟成長減少1%,台灣相應也將有0.6%到0.9%之間的經濟成長損失。 ...繼續閱讀

Posted by honigmann at 23:32回應(0)引用(0)經濟政策與經濟戰略
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