年糕料理館

自由時報報導提及，「美國麻州理工學院史隆管理學院管理及經濟學教授 雷斯特．梭羅，十九日在紐約時報撰文指出，中國經濟稱霸全球或許指日可待，但時間只可能在二十二世紀，而非二十一世紀。」而LESTER THUROW的論點並非現今才如此說，早在2002年他接受大紀元專訪時，就已經提及這個概念。同時他也指出，中國有望人均收入達到四萬美元，但是可能是在2100年，而他預測那時美國的人均收入約為六十五萬美元。他是這麼樂觀的看待中國，年糕則否。以年糕這個凡夫俗子的直覺來看，就再給中國人三世紀吧，中國人應該可以達到21世紀的水準。當然，年糕並非單純地指人均收入這一項。

本篇引用自
1.梭羅評論︰中國世紀？再等一百年吧
2.A Chinese Century? Maybe It’s the Next One
3.美國第一位懷疑中國GDP的經濟權威
[原文轉載]

梭羅評論︰中國世紀？再等一百年吧
編譯陳泓達／特譯

中國經濟正以每年十到十一％的速度迅猛增長，官方樂觀估計其規模將在本世紀趕上美國，成為全球最大經濟體。但美國麻州理工學院史隆管理學院管理及經濟學教授 雷斯特．梭羅，十九日在紐約時報撰文指出，中國經濟稱霸全球或許指日可待，但時間只可能在二十二世紀，而非二十一世紀。

中國官方統計 可信度打問號

目前擔任台積電獨立董事的梭羅在文章中指出，中國官方統計的可信度大有問題。若總體經濟年度成長率為十％，而佔有七成比例的農村經濟又如中國政府所稱並未成長，城市地區的年度經濟成長率就應該高達三十三％。中國城市經濟確實迅速增長，但還不到三十三％這麼誇張。

其次，中國官方統計和香港的數據差異甚大。香港作為南中國的金融首善，曾在二○○一年出現國內生產毛額（ＧＤＰ）下滑的衰退跡象，而與其毗鄰的廣東省該年ＧＤＰ卻出現十％的成長率。

中國ＧＤＰ 推算僅4.5到6％

梭羅指出，經濟成長率可從用電量加以推估。不論是那個國家，用電量的成長速度都比ＧＤＰ來得快。若中國的官方數據可信，必然有某些省份的ＧＤＰ成長速度高於用電量。但梭羅認為，這是不太可能的事，因為北京當局的統計數據也顯示，每單位ＧＤＰ的耗能量正逐步上升，而非如某些省份宣稱的下降。據此推算，中國年度 ＧＤＰ成長率大約介於四．五％到六％之間，而非官方聲稱的十％。

梭羅指出，中國官方公佈的總體經濟成長數據距離實況太遠，頂多只能視為中國城市經濟的成長率。

中國誇口將在本世紀趕上美國，躍升為全球最大經濟體，但梭羅認為，中國的人均所得要趕上美國，恐怕還得等上至少一百年的時間。回顧歷史，美國在十九世紀的經 濟成長率遠超過英國，其人均所得卻直到第一次世界大戰才趕上英國。日本從明治維新開始推動工業化，但在一百五十年後的今天，日本的人均ＧＤＰ換算成購買力平價，仍然只是美國的八十％。

梭羅指出，在中國突飛猛進的同時，美國並沒有原地踏步。一九九○年至二○○七年間，美國的人均所得成長率超越幾乎所有大國。

所以，梭羅認為，中國經濟成長在扣除通貨膨脹率後，實質成長率約為四％。這還算是樂觀估計，因為中國在下一世紀勢必會有某些年份達不到這個標準，這是每個國家都難以規避的景氣循環，如同美國一九三○年代的經濟大蕭條。

梭羅估計，二一○○年中國扣除通膨率後的人均ＧＤＰ還不到四萬美元，美國則是將近六十五萬美元。即使屆時中國人口四倍於美國，中國的ＧＤＰ總值仍無法和美國相比，何況一胎化政策下的中國男女比例失衡，在適婚男性找不到新娘下，中國人口可能會在本世紀出現下降趨勢。

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Economic View

A Chinese Century? Maybe It’s the Next One

 

By LESTER THUROW
Published: August 19, 2007

CHINA claims that its economy is growing at 10 to 11 percent a year, and China’s official analysts say that their nation will catch up with the United States long before the 22nd century arrives. Don’t believe it.

First, let’s deal with the implausibility of the official Chinese statistics. Mathematically, if the overall economy were to grow 10 percent annually, and the 70 percent of the economy that is based in rural areas were not growing (as stated by the Chinese government), the economy in China’s cities would have to be growing by 33 percent a year. The urban economy is growing rapidly, but not at a 33 percent pace.

Furthermore, Chinese statistics conflict with those of Hong Kong, the semiautonomous territory that serves as the financial capital of much of southern China. In 2001, Hong Kong had a recession, which is to say that it reported that its gross domestic product fell. Guangdong, the adjacent Chinese province, has a population of around 200 million. In 2001, it reported that its G.D.P. grew by 10 percent. What are the chances that both of those numbers are correct? Very slim.

Economic growth rates can be inferred from electricity consumption. In every country in the world, electricity use has generally grown faster than the G.D.P. Electricity is necessary for nearly all productive activities, and because of inefficiencies, consumption of electricity has generally outstripped economic growth. Rising energy costs have resulted in more efficient use of electricity, but especially in the developing world, economic growth has still generally lagged growth in electricity.

But if China’s official numbers are to be believed, there are provinces in China where the G.D.P. has been growing faster than energy use. That is unlikely, since the central government’s statistics also say that energy use per unit of G.D.P. is going up — not down, as claimed in provincial G.D.P. statistics.

Among the world’s 12 most rapidly growing economies over the last 10 years, the G.D.P. has grown only 45 percent as fast as electricity consumption. In the early 1970s, Japan was shutting down its electricity-guzzling aluminum industry. During this period, the G.D.P. grew 60 percent as fast as electricity consumption, the highest recorded level among industrialized nations.

Using those numbers as a guide, if we consider China’s actual electrical use, which is relatively easy to measure, and do a little math, we come up with this estimate: The G.D.P. in China has been growing somewhere between 4.5 percent (using the average for a rapidly growing country) to 6 percent a year (using the highest rate for Japan), not at the 10 percent rate claimed in official statistics.

The official statistic for China’s overall growth rate is best regarded as an approximate growth rate of the economy of its cities.

China also officially claims that it will catch up with the United States and become the world’s largest economy well before the 22nd century arrives.

There is an equally simple reason that neither of these predictions is likely to be realized. It simply takes more than 100 years for a large, less economically developed country to catch up with the world leader in per capita income. One need look only at the history of the United States, which had a much higher growth rate than Britain in the 19th century, yet did not catch up until World War I. Or consider Japan and the United States. Some 150 years after Japan started to modernize during the Meiji restoration, the country’s per capita G.D.P. is still only 80 percent of that of the United States in terms of purchasing power parity — although, in nominal terms, it has caught up.

The United States is not standing still. In fact, its per capita income grew faster than nearly all other big countries from 1990 to 2007. Europe’s per capita income fell from 85 percent of that of the United States in 1990 to 66 percent in 2007, according to International Monetary Fund statistics.

So let’s say that the inflation-adjusted growth rate for China is 4 percent a year. This is optimistic, because China will certainly have some bad years in the next century. Every country does — remember the Great Depression in the United States. A 4 percent rate is faster than any big country has ever grown for 100 years. But assume that China can do it. Assume, too, that America grows at the 3 percent rate it has averaged for the last 15 years.

Now project the two growth rates forward: the inflation-adjusted per-capita G.D.P. of China would be less than $40,000 in 2100, versus almost $650,000 in the United States. That’s because China starts at $1,000 per capita and the United States at $43,000. If, in 2100, China has four times as many people as the United States, as it does now, China would still not have a total G.D.P. equal to America’s.

But it is unlikely to have four times as many people. It is always a mistake to project population growth rates for a century, but let’s do it anyway: With a one-child policy and a sex ratio that favors boys (many men won’t find wives) — China should experience a decline in population in the 21st century. Yet let’s assume for a moment that China’s population remains constant, at 1.3 billion. If immigration to the United States continued at the current rate, America’s population would rise. If the population grew at 1 percent a year, as it has recently, it would more than double by 2100, reducing the enormous population gap between the two countries. Are these projections likely to be realized? Who knows?

What is clear is that China is unlikely to surpass the United States in G.D.P. in absolute or relative terms anytime soon.

There may be a Chinese century, but it will be the 22nd century — not the 21st.

Lester Thurow is a professor of management and economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He is also on the board of Taiwan Semiconductor, which does business in mainland China.

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紀元專訪：美國第一位懷疑中國GDP的經濟權威
作者﹕林之昊

【大紀元4月11日訊】大紀元記者林之昊波士頓報導／四月五日，美國著名經濟學家，麻省理工學院(MIT)史龍管理學院前院長萊斯特‧舒若(Lester Thurow)教授在他辦公室接受了大紀元報的專訪，暢談了他對中國經濟現狀的一些看法。舒若教授是第一位對中國GDP(國內生產總值)增長數據發表懷疑 的美國經濟權威人士。

國民生產毛額和能源消耗數據不成比例

舒若教授說，他覺得中國發表的國內生產總值(GDP)增長率不可信，因為其中有許多統計數字是自相矛盾的。比如說，2001年中國增長率為7.3%，而香港的增長率只有-2%。眾所周知，南方省市是中國經濟的前趨，而 香港是中國南方經濟的首府。如果香港週圍地區的經濟增長率至少是7.3%，香港不可能為-2%。那麼其中一個數據肯定是錯的。去年全世界的經濟都在蕭條期，以出口為主要動力的中國經濟卻一點不受影響，這不可信。還有，在過去的三年中，中國經濟的總增長率為25%，而能源消耗的總增長率只有13%，這也不可能。發展經濟需要消耗能源，當人們生活水平提高後也會多消耗能源，像開電視，用空調等。世界上所有國家的能源消耗增長率都要比經濟增長率快一點，通常是 經濟增長1%，能源消耗增長1.1%。這就無法解釋中國是如何做到世界上任何一個別的國家都做不到的事。再看一下中國的出口增長率。在過去的五年中，中國出口增長率大起大落，而經濟增長率每年都是一樣的7%-8%，出口是中國很重要的經濟來源，如果出口額是上上下下像鋸齒型的，那經濟增長如此平滑就不符合常理了。除此之外還有幾打數據有問題。如果只是一項數據有出入，那還能解釋，這麼多數據有問題就變得讓人質疑了。而且許多國營企業欠債倒閉，這些卻沒有從國內生產總值中扣除。

在中國毀約太容易

加入世界貿易組織(WTO)會給中國帶來許多好處。作為成員，中國必須遵守它 的貿易規則，些規則會幫助中國經濟走入全面發展，同時也會增加投資者的信心。中方遵守合同是對投資者信心最大的保障，現在中國毀約太容易。當然，規則還得由中國政府自覺地去遵守，外面人都無法保證得了，因為要鑽空子總會找到空子的。加入世貿組織給中國帶來最負面的影響就是失業問題。大多數國營企業將無法面 對自由經濟的競爭而倒閉，這將導致許多人失業。這是一個極其艱難、極其痛苦的過程。現在中國最大的問題就是懸殊的貧富差異和失業。但是，越早面對這些問題越好。

以中國為消費市場投資虧本

就外國對中國的投資，舒若教授說這分為兩種情況。一種是以出口為目的，投資生產出來的產品用於銷售到中國以外的市場。這部份投資者賺了很多錢。中國不光有廉價的勞動力，而且有相對便宜的很好的技術人才。另一種投資是以中國為市場，投資生 產出來的產品是銷售給中國人的。這部份投資還沒有賺到錢。中國的經濟總產值只佔世界經濟總產值的2%，人均產值就更小。絕大多數中國人80%以上的收入是花在吃住上，沒有閑錢去買外資生產的高檔消費品，能買得起的只是很有限的一些人。就拿汽車業來講，只有人均收入達到五千美元，汽車業才有基礎發展，它才開 始賺錢。中國人的平均收入距標準還甚遠。例如飛亞汽車在巴西投資了二十年後才開始賺錢。

美國花一百年才趕上英國

中國的經濟發展要趕上世界先進國家是一個長期的任務。美國花了一百年才趕上了英國的人均收入。日本欲趕上美國花了一百三十五年，現在還差一些。台灣在1959 年人均收入才五百美元，在成功地發展了五十年後，達到了二萬美元，這還只是美國的一半。中國的問題不是看它在今後的五、六年中能否快速發展，也不是看它是否能解決目前的這些問題，而是要看它能否在很長的一個時期裡維持穩步發展。有許多國家在蓬勃發展了十年、二十年後突然倒下了。像巴西，1968年到 1978年間，它是全世界經濟發展最快的國家，現在呢？再看世界上經濟最強的三個國家美國、日本和德國，都是在平均每年3%-4%的增長率下，穩步增長了一百多年，這是別的國家所沒有做到的。