June 26,2007

The Economist:Protest in China, Mobilised by mobile

The Economist在2007/06/21的『亞洲專題』中,有一則關於中國的新聞評論,也和網際網路等通訊科技對中國政治的影響有關,是Protest in China:Mobilised by mobile.

文章一開始就說:Organised by text messages and internet chats, China's middle classes are daring to protest, and giving the government a fright


也確實,廈門的反PX遊行,讓大家見識到通訊科技及網際網路的發展,逐漸地在中國大陸成為民眾反抗的工具之一,儘管前景未必樂觀,但總歸是一個可能。與此同時,在北京也出現了難得一件的「線上訴願」(an online petition)的公民行動,目的是要抗議山西黑窯奴工事件,此即為所謂的「藍絲帶行動」。

《經濟學人》指出:Chinese officials have had reason to worry before about the rallying power of the internet and mobile phones. Two years ago they helped activists organise protests against Japan in several Chinese cities. But the government, at least initially, sympathised with those protests. By contrast the demonstrations in Xiamen were directed at officialdom, and the slave-labour scandal embarrasses the government.

 

根據文章的分析指出,廈門反石化遊行有兩個地方值得注意。

首先,是那些參與遊行的人多數都是中產階級,they came mostly from China's fast-growing middle class, a group the Communist Party usually regards as a dependable bulwark of support. In many Chinese cities there have been small-scale middle-class protests over issues related to property rights. But they are rarely directed at city governments.

其次,則是儘管這次遊行面臨官方的諸多阻撓,但參與者仍然不少,群眾甚且喊出了要市長下台的口號,不過最後還是和平落幕。

 

而廈門遊行的成功,也刺激了其他城市的跟進。

The protests in Xiamen must be worrying to officials in Beijing. Urban environments have been deteriorating across the country. If tolerance for this among the middle classes were to crumble, unrest could spread. Ominously, from the party's perspective, hundreds of Beijing residents rallied outside the offices of the State Environmental Protection Administration (SEPA) on June 5th. Their complaint was about plans to build a waste incinerator in the north-west of the city, which they said could spread toxic chemicals. Two days later SEPA called for a further investigation of the incinerator project as well as of Xiamen's urban development plans.

 

這些無疑都讓中國政府十分困擾,因為,For all their pro-green rhetoric, China's leaders would abhor this. They remain deeply wary of environmental groups, fearful that if given a free rein they could rapidly mobilise middle-class opinion against government policies. Nick Young of China Development Brief, a newsletter, says that these concerns increased in the wake of democratic revolutions early this decade in several former Soviet states. Although they eased a bit last year, Mr Young thinks the government will remain cautious. Xiamen has only one officially registered non-governmental environmental group. It has kept itself nervously aloof from the paraxylene-plant campaign. In Xiamen as elsewhere, it is China's online civil society that is leading the charge.

 

全文請見:http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9367055

 


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『自由亞洲』有一則資訊很有意思。
是:孟捷慕談他的新書《中國幻想》。

文中提到,『美國霍普金斯大學學者孟捷慕(James Mann),在他的新書《中國幻想》中提出,“美國的主政者對中國存在幻想”。』
孟捷慕的意思其實是:『“美國通過經濟合作推動中國民主改革的思路可能是錯誤的。”他說,對中國的幻想是中國會演變出自由民主;但他認為,中國在未來十年到二十年,是繼續保持現有的繁榮,但不允許有組織的反對勢力、繼續一黨專制、不允許有獨立的司法制度。他的總結是,20年後的中國,政治上的基本因素,與今日不無多樣。』

簡單地說,孟捷慕認為,那些認為中國會因為經濟改革或經濟自由就進一步邁向政治改革及政治自由的想法,是不切實際的幻想。
而主要的原因在於,孟捷慕認為,中國中產階級不但還很少,而且對於維持現狀以保障本身既得利益的興趣又偏偏比較大。
『他(孟捷慕)說引致中國變革的中產階級,“對維持現狀的興趣比其他人更為強烈。”......他說﹕“首先,中國相當特別,比韓國及台灣大很多,有廣大內陸,可以不受沿海城市的影響,這點與台灣韓國不一樣。另外,中國的中產階級還是很少,而其它地方的小資產階級(即小資)則是變革的主要動力,中國的則是維持現狀不變。”』

『孟捷慕的新書《中國幻想》--全名是我們的主政者如何淡化中國的鎮壓。他說,美國的決策者期待世界會依照過去的方式運作:中產階段、經濟自由會帶來政治自由。布什在1991年11月就說到,“經濟自由有創造自由慣性,而而自由會締造民主。”布什說,“中國自由貿易,時間站在我們這一邊。”過去35年,美國對華的這種政策根深蒂固,但美國並有預期到一種論述發生了本質的改變。
書中,他說中國的將來有三個可能的格局:(一)“安慰人心的格局”,貿易是打開中國的鑰匙,貿易帶來政治自由,走向民主。(二)“動亂的格局”,中國走向某種重大災難,罷工有增無減、農民抗議、環境惡、貧富差距越來越大、持續貪腐,經濟崩潰或政治解體。(三)“不變的格局”,繼續目前的經濟路線,絲毫不觸及政治體制的改變。
孟捷慕說,他看不到中國即將崩潰,也看不到安慰人心的格局。25、30年後,中國將更富裕、更強盛,如今日一般繼續一黨專政、繼續鎮壓政治異見團體。』


以上摘錄自:http://www.rfa.org/cantonese/zhuanti/shulinmanbu/2007/03/05/james_mann/?simple=1
Posted by Fran at July 1,2007 07:30