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2008年07月31日
The South China Sea: The Phoenix Rises from Its Ashes? --by 海洋政策專家Mark J. Valencia
FP Note No. 2 (July 31, 2008)
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA:
THE PHOENIX RISES FROM ITS ASHES?
（南海：浴火重生的鳳凰？）
Mark J. Valencia
Maritime Policy Analyst
Kaneohe, Hawaii
As the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) convenes in Singapore, it would do well to revisit the South China Sea issues. Like an evil phoenix rising from its ashes, China's behavior in the South China Sea has become more confrontational than co-operative and deserves renewed ASEAN attention.
When China signed on to the 2002 ASEAN Declaration on Conduct in the South China Sea, ASEAN policy makers breathed a sigh of relief at what they viewed as a major achievement. After all, the non-binding Declaration called on all parties to " exercise self-restraint in the conduct of activities that would complicate or escalate disputes". And when China and the Philippines entered into a joint marine seismic undertaking (JMSU) in a disputed area of the South China Sea—and allowed Vietnam to join as well –some policy makers and analysts were ecstatic. Their fondest dreams had been realized. China had been "tamed". It would be a benign co-operative neighbor and observe international norms of law and behavior. ASEAN attention soon turned to other more pressing matters—like terrorism, Myanmar, the ASEAN Charter and revitalizing the ARF.
However as energy prices soar and the search for petroleum becomes more desperate, the South China Sea disputes are resurfacing and the temporary co-operative arrangements are unraveling. ASEAN'S efforts to entangle China in a legally binding Code of Conduct for the South China Sea have come to naught. And China appears to have reverted to its preference for dealing with ASEAN members separately rather than as a whole, particularly regarding the South China Sea issues. The JMSU has not been renewed by the Philippines amid a raging domestic controversy over whether the arrangement is unconstitutional and had been agreed in exchange for certain contracts from China.
Meanwhile, China strongly objected and apparently began to pressure the Philippine government regarding a bill before the Philippine legislature that would include the Spratly islands and Scarborough Shoal within Philippine baselines. This is despite the fact that China has long claimed all the features and most of the South China Sea within a "historic" U-shaped dashed line that has no basis in modern international law. Moreover, despite its agreement to exercise restraint, in December 2008 it established a new administrative organ--Shansha--to oversee the Paracel and Spratly archipelagoes.
Complicating matters, the United States entered the fray when US Defense Secretary Robert Gates diplomatically but pointedly warned China about bullying its neighbors over natural resources in disputed areas of the South China Sea. And the US government confirmed that it was concerned about a newly discovered submarine base on Hainan and its implications for supporting China's territorial claims in the area as well as threatening nearby sea lanes. Clearly China's relationship with ASEAN is becoming increasingly delicate and complex and future China-ASEAN ties could be influenced by the China-US and China- Japan relationships. Gates also made clear that the Bush Administration's Asia policy is to maintain US military and economic strength in the region. When juxtaposed to Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabo's November 2007 proposal for stronger China –ASEAN military ties, this spells competition for the hearts and minds of ASEAN members.
Adding fuel to the fire, China has now warned US oil giant ExxonMobil Corporation to suspend its search for petroleum in a South China Sea block granted by Vietnam or face a loss of its business in China. Vietnam's claim to the area which is on its continental shelf appears legitimate. The basis of China's claim to the area is unclear save for the U-shaped line. Last year a similar threat forced BP to abandon a US$2 billion gas project with Vietnam for a nearby area.
It is not clear where this will all end. Perhaps this is a leaking but tolerable status quo—ripples that do not disturb fundamentals. Or maybe it is a harbinger of deeper stirrings in the ASEAN-China relationship. The South China Sea situation deserves renewed attention by ASEAN and perhaps the ARF. Moving forward to an agreement on a legally binding Code of Conduct for the South China Sea has become urgent.
[Dr. Mark J. Valencia is an internationally known maritime policy analyst, political commentator and consultant focused on Asia. He was a Senior Fellow with the East-West Center, Honolulu, Hawaii, for 26 years where he originated, developed and managed international, interdisciplinary projects on maritime policy and international relations in Asia. He has a M.A. in Marine Affairs from the University of Rhode Island and a Ph.D in Oceanography from the University of Hawaii. Before joining the East-West Center, Dr. Valencia was a Lecturer at the Universiti Sains Malaysia and a Technical Expert with the UNDP Regional Project on Offshore Prospecting based in Bangkok. He has also been a consultant to international organizations and NGOs (e.g., IMO, UNDP, the Nautilus Institute, PEMSEA); government institutions and agencies (in, e.g., Brunei, Canada, Japan, Malaysia, the Republic of Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Vietnam and the USA); and numerous private entities (e.g., Shell and CONOCO).]
Meanwhile, China strongly objected and apparently began to pressure the Philippine government regarding a bill before the Philippine legislature that would include the Spratly islands and Scarborough Shoal within Philippine baselines. This is despite the fact that China has long claimed all the features and most of the South China Sea within a "historic" U-shaped dashed line that has no basis in modern international law. Moreover, despite its agreement to exercise restraint, in December 2008 it established a new administrative organ--Shansha--to oversee the Paracel and Spratly archipelagoes.
Complicating matters, the United States entered the fray when US Defense Secretary Robert Gates diplomatically but pointedly warned China about bullying its neighbors over natural resources in disputed areas of the South China Sea. And the US government confirmed that it was concerned about a newly discovered submarine base on Hainan and its implications for supporting China's territorial claims in the area as well as threatening nearby sea lanes. Clearly China's relationship with ASEAN is becoming increasingly delicate and complex and future China-ASEAN ties could be influenced by the China-US and China- Japan relationships. Gates also made clear that the Bush Administration's Asia policy is to maintain US military and economic strength in the region. When juxtaposed to Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabo's November 2007 proposal for stronger China –ASEAN military ties, this spells competition for the hearts and minds of ASEAN members.
Adding fuel to the fire, China has now warned US oil giant ExxonMobil Corporation to suspend its search for petroleum in a South China Sea block granted by Vietnam or face a loss of its business in China. Vietnam's claim to the area which is on its continental shelf appears legitimate. The basis of China's claim to the area is unclear save for the U-shaped line. Last year a similar threat forced BP to abandon a US$2 billion gas project with Vietnam for a nearby area.
It is not clear where this will all end. Perhaps this is a leaking but tolerable status quo—ripples that do not disturb fundamentals. Or maybe it is a harbinger of deeper stirrings in the ASEAN-China relationship. The South China Sea situation deserves renewed attention by ASEAN and perhaps the ARF. Moving forward to an agreement on a legally binding Code of Conduct for the South China Sea has become urgent.
[Dr. Mark J. Valencia is an internationally known maritime policy analyst, political commentator and consultant focused on Asia. He was a Senior Fellow with the East-West Center, Honolulu, Hawaii, for 26 years where he originated, developed and managed international, interdisciplinary projects on maritime policy and international relations in Asia. He has a M.A. in Marine Affairs from the University of Rhode Island and a Ph.D in Oceanography from the University of Hawaii. Before joining the East-West Center, Dr. Valencia was a Lecturer at the Universiti Sains Malaysia and a Technical Expert with the UNDP Regional Project on Offshore Prospecting based in Bangkok. He has also been a consultant to international organizations and NGOs (e.g., IMO, UNDP, the Nautilus Institute, PEMSEA); government institutions and agencies (in, e.g., Brunei, Canada, Japan, Malaysia, the Republic of Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Vietnam and the USA); and numerous private entities (e.g., Shell and CONOCO).]
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