水瓶倒出的流水帳

根據 Boston Globe 的報導，紅襪官方釋出的文件表示，Theo Epstein 將再度成為紅襪的 GM，並兼任 Executive Vice President。之前所傳，將有不同職稱，不會回到 GM，結果現在還是讓他回到 GM 的位子上。只作了短暫時間的 co-GM，Cherington 變成 vice president/player personnel，Hoyer 則是 assistant GM。

Lucchino 也有些 comments，聽起來一切良好（當然，也可能只是場面話）：

“The Red Sox are a stronger, deeper, bolder, and more effective organization now that Theo Epstein has rejoined us as General Manager, and that strength, depth, boldness, and effectiveness will lead to successful baseball teams in the years ahead. While Theo was contemplating returning to the organization in an advisory role to Jed Hoyer and Ben Cherington, he and I talked and agreed it was best for the organization if he returned as General Manager – a title more appropriate for him because it accurately reflects the role he will play. John, Tom, Ben and Jed agreed that such a structure would be better and offered greater clarity, internally and externally.

“Theo returns as General Manager to an organization that is different from the one he left on October 31. The fourteen year relationship between Theo and me, and the passage of time over the last three months, have helped to put behind us the friction that developed during last year’s negotiations.

“During the intervening months, there has developed an even greater degree of comfort between ownership and management on the one hand, and, on the other, the talented, dedicated people who labor tirelessly and effectively in our Baseball Operations’ department, including Theo. While we will continue to have internal discourse and debate regarding specific baseball matters, a guiding long-term baseball operations philosophy has developed. We have implemented new mechanisms which enhance internal communication and which streamline external communication. Over this period, walls have crumbled, perceptions of one another have changed, and appreciation of one another has grown. As an enhanced sense of “team” has emerged, we have rediscovered that, whatever our differences may have been, baseball is at the center of our operations and our lives, and working towards the success of the Red Sox is a commitment which all of us share.

“On a personal level, Theo and I have concluded independently that the Red Sox is a stronger organization when we are both part of it. We have been comfortable assuring each other that a productive collaboration lies ahead, and we pledge to Red Sox Nation that we will devote our combined energy, undistracted, to the goal of producing a team that will continue -- and increase -- our competitive success for years to come. Make no mistake: much work lies ahead for all of us, and we fully realize that our future conduct must conform to our sincere aspirations.”

rotoworld 今天推出了 AL East 各隊的新秀前十名。紅襪的排名如下：

1. Andy Marte - 3B - DOB: 10/21/83 - ETA: April 2007
.275/.372/.506, 20 HR, 74 RBI, 83/64 K/BB, 0 SB in 389 AB for Triple-A Richmond
.149/.236/.234, 0 HR, 3 RBI, 10/6 K/BB, 0 SB in 47 AB for Atlanta

Marte’s bad 47-at-bat stint for the Braves should hardly qualify as a setback, not when he was so productive in Triple-A as a 21-year-old. The only real source of concern now is the mysterious right elbow injury, which came to light after he was traded to Boston for Edgar Renteria. His agent dismissed the report of him possibly requiring Tommy John surgery as nonsense. Even if Marte did need the surgery and missed 2006 as a result, he’d still be a fabulous prospect. His defense at third base, once a weak point, continues to improve, and he’ll be a .280 hitter with 30 homers and 60-70 walks per year in his prime. Another three to six months in Triple-A should be sufficient.

Reports have Marte on his way to Cleveland for Coco Crisp. It’d be an incredibly short-sighted move for Boston.

2. Dustin Pedroia - 2B/SS - DOB: 08/17/83 - ETA: April 2007
.324/.409/.508, 8 HR, 40 RBI, 26/34 K/BB, 7 SB in 256 AB for Double-A Portland
.255/.356/.382, 5 HR, 24 RBI, 17/24 K/BB, 1 SB in 204 AB for Triple-A Pawtucket

The Red Sox had Pedroia, a 2004 second-round pick out of Arizona State, slide over to second base last year because Edgar Renteria and Hanley Ramirez were ahead of him at shortstop. Now both are gone, and Pedroia could be an option at shortstop for the club for at least a couple of years. His arm is a little light for the position, but he has the range to be adequate right now. For the long-term, it’s still likely that his home will be second base. Pedroia projects as an excellent top-of-the-order hitter, although he won’t steal a bunch of bases. His subpar numbers after reaching Triple-A were greatly the result of a wrist injury. He’s close to being ready now, so the Red Sox should have been content to enter spring training with him and Alex Cora competing for a starting job. Instead, it appears that they’ll sign ex-Marlin Alex Gonzalez.

3. Jon Lester - LHP - DOB: 01/07/84 - ETA: May 2007
11-6, 2.61 ERA, 114 H, 163/57 K/BB in 148 1/3 IP for Double-A Portland

Because he’s a lefty capable of touching 95 mph with his fastball, Lester has been in demand in trade talks for years now. It was only in 2005 that he developed into a top-flight pitching prospect. Helped along by a cut fastball he developed in 2004, he’s talented enough to be a No. 2 starter in the majors. Better command of his curveball and an improved changeup are necessary if he’s going to fulfill his potential, but since he’s just 22, he has plenty of time to grow. After four months in Triple-A, he could be ready to help out in August if needed. The Red Sox would probably prefer not to use him until 2007.

4. Jonathan Papelbon - RHP - DOB: 11/23/80 - ETA: Now
5-2, 2.48 ERA, 59 H, 83/23 K/BB in 87 IP for Double-A Portland
1-2, 2.93 ERA, 21 H, 27/3 K/BB in 27 2/3 IP for Triple-A Pawtucket
3-1, 2.65 ERA, 33 H, 34/17 K/BB in 34 IP for Boston

It’s always a good sign when your team’s No. 4 prospect draws comparisons to Roger Clemens. Papelbon, though, still needs to master a second and maybe even a third pitch to go along with his 95-mph fastball. Papelbon’s slider, curveball and changeup all took a backseat last year to the splitter that Curt Schilling taught him. Perhaps another year of experience is all it will take to make the splitter a second swing-and-miss pitch. Exactly what kind of role Papelbon will have this season is uncertain. There’s not going to be room for him in the rotation unless the Red Sox move two pitchers, and there’s some chance that he could open the year at Triple-A Pawtucket. My guess is that he makes the team as a reliever, and if that happens, he might even get a chance to close should Keith Foulke struggle. For the long-term, he projects as a No. 3 starter.

5. Craig Hansen - RHP - DOB: 11/15/83 - ETA: July 2006
1-0, 0 Sv, 0.00 ERA, 2 H, 4/0 K/BB in 3 IP for Rookie GCL Red Sox
0-0, 1 Sv, 0.00 ERA, 9 H, 10/1 K/BB in 9 2/3 IP for Double-A Portland
0-0, 0 Sv, 6.00 ERA, 6 H, 3/1 K/BB in 3 IP for Boston

Hansen, regarded by some as the top pitcher available in the 2005 draft, got a $4 million major league contract after being drafted 26th overall by the Red Sox. His chances of winning a spot on the club’s playoff roster came to an end after he was shut down with the tired arm in late August, but he debuted in September anyway and pitched three innings. Hansen probably has the stuff to start for a major league team, but the Red Sox will likely continue to develop him as a reliever, with an eye toward making him the closer as soon as 2007. His mid-90s fastball and terrific slider could make him dominant in that role. Because the Red Sox have loaded up on pitching, Hansen won’t have much of a chance of winning a bullpen spot coming out of spring training. He might be back in Boston sometime around the All-Star break.

6. Jacoby Ellsbury - OF - DOB: 09/11/83 - ETA: 2008
.317/.418/.432, 1 HR, 19 RBI, 20/24 K/BB, 23 SB in 139 AB for SS Single-A Lowell

Ellsbury, who hit .406/.495/.582 during his final year at Oregon State, was receiving comparisons to Johnny Damon even before the Red Sox made him the 23rd pick in the 2005 draft. Selected as the fastest baserunner and third-best defensive player in Baseball America’s tools rankings of draft-eligible collegians, he projects as Boston’s long-term center fielder. It figures to be at least 2008 before he’s ready to make much of a contribution offensively. Ellsbury lacks outstanding offensive upside, but he could get on base enough to be a leadoff hitter, and the steal potential -- he was 23-for-26 in just 35 games last year -- makes him a fantasy prospect.

7. Kelly Shoppach - C - DOB: 04/29/80
.253/.352/.507, 26 HR, 75 RBI, 116/46 K/BB, 0 SB in 371 AB for Triple-A Pawtucket
.000/.063/.000, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 7/0 K/BB, 0 SB in 15 AB for Boston

It hardly seems fair, but Shoppach’s embarrassing showing in 15 at-bats for the Red Sox last season seemed to counter what good he did by hitting 26 homers and finishing with an 859 OPS in 371 at-bats in Pawtucket. There didn’t appear to be much interest in him in trade talks over the winter, and now the Red Sox are prepared to go with John Flaherty rather than try Shoppach as the personal catcher for Tim Wakefield this year. Shoppach still figures to be a long-term regular. He’s solid enough defensively that he’ll never have to hit for much of an average to be one of the game’s top 30 catchers. With Jason Varitek signed through 2008, Shoppach will again be a candidate to go in an in-season deal this year.

8. Jed Lowrie - SS/2B - DOB: 04/17/84 - ETA: 2009
.328/.429/.448, 4 HR, 32 RBI, 30/34 K/BB, 7 SB in 201 AB for SS Single-A Lowell

Lowrie, a second baseman at Stanford, was moved to shortstop after being selected 45th overall by the Red Sox last year and took to the position better than anyone could have anticipated. It still might be more likely that he’ll end up at second base for the long-term, but the Red Sox will keep developing him as a shortstop. Offensively, the switch-hitting Lowrie figures to keep hitting for average and getting on-base. He’s not going to hit for the same kind of power he did in college, so his upside is rather limited. So far, though, all signs point to him becoming an average regular.

9. Manny Delcarmen - RHP - DOB: 02/16/82 - ETA: Sept. 2006
4-4, 3 Sv, 3.23 ERA, 31 H, 49/20 K/BB in 39 IP for Double-A Portland
3-1, 2 Sv, 1.29 ERA, 17 H, 23/13 K/BB in 21 IP for Triple-A Pawtucket
0-0, 0 Sv, 3.00 ERA, 8 H, 9/7 K/BB in 9 IP for Boston

Delcarmen, who underwent Tommy John surgery in 2003, is back in Boston’s top 10 after a two-year absence, though he would have been 11th on the 2005 list. Last year was his first as a reliever, and he finished with strong numbers, although his walk rate was a problem. Delcarmen can get strikeouts with his mid-90s fastball or his power curve. If he does a better job of throwing strikes, he should turn into a quality setup man. The Red Sox probably won’t need him for at least the first few months of this season.

10. Brandon Moss - OF - DOB: 09/16/83 - ETA: Aug. 2007
.268/.337/.441, 16 HR, 61 RBI, 129/53 K/BB, 6 SB in 503 AB for Double-A Portland
.236/.291/.389, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 24/5 K/BB, 2 SB in 72 AB for Peoria Saguaros (AFL)

Moss, the South Atlantic League’s MVP for hitting .339/.402/.515 in 2004, was jumped up to Double-A last year after just 83 at-bats in the Florida State League and couldn’t muster more than average numbers. Fortunately, he was just 21 at the time. He should go back to hitting for average this year. A left-handed hitter, Moss could be a Jacque Jones-type player, though he’s not quite as good as Jones defensively in right field. Since he’s not going to post very good OBPs or develop into a 25- or 30-homer threat, the Red Sox may prefer to use him as trade bait.

Next five: OF Luis Soto, RHP Clay Buchholz, RHP Edgar Martinez, OF David Murphy, LHP Abe Alvarez

對於這個似乎即將要成真的交易，我看還是另開一個主題，要討論的，要罵的，可以有個地方。

除了提到昨天 Boston Herald 較早的詳細報導，今天 cleveland.com 也有報導，提到目前只等 Mota 的體檢過。報導的交易內容是 Andy Marte + Guillermo Mota + another minor league pitcher for Coco Crisp + two low-level minor leaguers。

整個交易的評價，等到那三個還不知道的名字變成已知，再來討論。就先從主要的 Andy Marte 換 Coco Crisp 談起。如果，我們只是要看紅襪今年季後的交易成果，回想到 Andy Marte 是用 Edgar Renteria + 11M 換來的，若把兩個交易放在一起，想成 Renteria + 11M 換到 Coco Crisp，那大家可能會好過些。尤其，若在有些人眼中，Renteria 的合約是負值的，那多花 11M 買到未來四年不會太貴的 Crisp，絕對有賺。

之所以需要 Crisp，當然是因為 Johnny Damon 跑到了洋基。紅襪若要留下他，至少太概要花每年 12M。一樣是四年的時間，Crisp 未來四年在仲裁中拿到的薪水，平均而言，應該不會超過 5,6M，他今年要求 3.05M。加上把那 11M 分到四年，紅襪一年花在 Crisp 身上的錢，大概不會超過 8M。跟要留下 Damon 的錢相比，等於是每年少 4M，但跟 Damon 的戰力相比呢？

在近兩年，Crisp 的打擊成績，已經接近 Damon。而若考慮 Fenway Park 是打者球場（2005 Park Factor 1.12），Jacobs Field 偏投手球場（2005 Park Factor 0.96）。若細看兩人這兩年的主客場成績：

Damon 在主客場的長打率差不多，上壘率則相當明顯。不過，一般球員多有在主場比客場打得好的情況，也不能就說 Damon 的成績完全是靠 Fenway Park 撐起來的。Crisp 去年的客場成績好得有點誇張（當然，這不是跟 Manny, Ortiz 相比，而是一般的中外野手），大概是紅襪看上他，不惜代價要弄到他的原因。若他真能在紅襪打出接近 .888 OPS，紅襪大概不會在意，Marte 未來的成績如何。對照 Crisp 這兩年的主客場成績，他今年 26 歲，未來四年若交出 .820 左右的成績不算是太高的期待。再考慮到 Damon 的年齡，Crisp 未來四年的成績要略勝過 Johnny Damon，機會還不小。

若紅襪真用每年 5M 簽下 Alex Gonzalez（我實在難以相信），加上 Crisp 的交易，及先前 Renteria 的交易，及 Damon 的不續約，紅襪在這個季後，將 Damon + Renteria 換成了 Crisp + Gonzalez，每年大概可以省下 8,9M。戰力上，Crisp 有相當的機會不輸 Damon，Gozalez 在打擊上，連 Renteria 去年的爛成績都難達到，但或許他的守備能比 Renteria 去年好一些。省了 8,9M，戰力下降不算多。當然，我們也別忘記，因為 Damon 被洋基簽走，紅襪多了一個第一輪和一個三明治選秀權。所以，就整體來看，FO 的作法，其實也沒什麼好批評的。

不過呢，有時候事情還是得分開看。一個爛交易，不能因為和一個好交易合起來一起看，就覺得它不爛。Renteria 那交易，我覺得紅襪趁著勇士的急需 SS 及不需 3B，花了錢，弄來來非常被看好的新秀，對不缺錢的紅襪，是個有利的交易。把 Marte 送出去換 Crisp，我是覺得可惜，主要是我那麼看好 Crisp。當然，若 Crisp 真被交易來，我自然是希望我想的是錯的，Crisp 真能成為大明星。另一點是之前回應提到過的，Marte 送出去的對象，是另一個令人有點難以釋懷的原因。再加了 Marte，印地安人的年輕核心，實在太可怕了。看到 rotoworld 對這交易謠言的評價，剛好跟我昨天想的一樣：為什麼紅襪不拿 Mota 去換 Jason Michales 就好？

Theo is back soon. 傳聞已久的事，今天終於證實。

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2006/01/19/theo_epstein_to_rejoin_red_sox

http://redsox.bostonherald.com/redSox/view.bg?articleid=122107

Theo 回來，名稱將不會是 GM，但他的決策影響力將不小於任何人。Welcome back, Theo。就當做只是去渡個假。

其它的消息。今天紅襪跟 Willie Harris 簽下小聯盟約。二壘手的他，也可以勉強守個中外野。不過，應該不會是今年的主要中外野手。

Bronson Arroyo 不顧經紀人的建議，跟紅襪簽下三年共 11.25M 的合約。這薪水略低於他的身價（他的經紀人建議每年 4.5M），Arroyo 簽下這合約，表示希望他的整個職業生涯在波士頓渡過。但由於這份低於市場的合約，反而讓他更吸引人，而成為被交易的籌碼。一度傳出雙方有 gentleman's agreement，紅襪不會將他交易，但 Arroyo 自己表示，紅襪沒有給他任何保證，只告訴他，他目前不在交易檯面上，紅襪也告訴他，看不出接下來要交易他。我對 David Wells, Matt Clement 跟 Bronson Arroyo 這三人中，原本 Arroyo 是我覺得比較差，希望被交易出去的對象。但在 Arroyo 對波士頓輸誠後，我希望紅襪不要利用了他的好心，就讓想留在這兒的人留下來吧。

Baseball Analysts 推出了對小聯盟新秀的排名。紅襪列榜的有：

9. Andy Marte - 3B - Boston Red Sox - 22 (AAA)

About one month ago, I looked at Andy Marte's "disappointing" season in detail. I put quotes around disappointing, because I am not one in that corner. There is no doubt that Marte didn't progress much this year, but he also wasn't horrible. People are too quick to judge him by his Major League stats (sample size!), Dominican Winter League stats (started very slow, came back strong), and a lack of a breakout season. However, my contention is that the only thing that was damaged this year was Andy's confidence. After struggling pretty bad in the Majors, he would go to struggle after being demoted. The first time, it resulted in a .196/.304/.340 stretch for nearly a month. The second time, it put considerable dead weight on his year-long DWL stats.

If the Red Sox are serious about keeping Marte, they must do everything in their power to re-build his confidence. With Mike Lowell, Kevin Youkilis and J.T. Snow in the fold, the team will be able to leave Andy in AAA for much of the season. He should start to hit confidently in Pawtucket, and begin to break out in the ways that we have been projecting for years. I made the comparison in the article linked above, and I will again: don't be shocked if, in the end, Andy Marte ends up as Paul Konerko with enough agility to stick at third.

14. Jon Lester - SP - Boston Red Sox - 22 (AAA)

Introduction: My favorite prospect in the minors, Lester more than validated the confidence I had in him in 2005. Once coveted for Randy Johnson, the Red Sox refused to trade him, and for good reason. Lester would be the Eastern League's best pitcher in 2005, as the Red Sox were conservative with him, placing him on a pitch count and refusing to move him up a level. With no pressing needs at the Major League level, Lester was best in further honing his skills in the minors. Having turned 22 on Saturday, Jon will not be kept from the Majors much longer. Look for the team to bring him up sometime early in the midseason, when their schedule is soft and he can be broken in easily.

Skillset/Future: Lester profiles to be a #2 pitcher at the pro level. Like Papelbon, the Red Sox had him working on a new pitch in 2005, with Lester trying to develop a cutter. The results were successful, as Jon continued to improve against right-handed batters. In addition to the cutter, Lester throws a fastball with great movement up into the mid 90s, and a good change up and curveball. This season, he started to draw comparisons to Andy Pettite, which certainly isn't the worst thing in the world. His control is inconsistent, but if offered, could be a weapon. Lester is so close to being Major League quality, the Red Sox could trade both David Wells and Matt Clement, and their rotation could improve.

22. Jon Papelbon - SP/RP - Boston Red Sox - 25 (MLB)

Introduction: In November of 2004, I predicted that Jon Papelbon and Jon Lester would, in one year's time, be "one of the 3 best 1-2 pitching prospect tandems in the minor leagues." I was wrong. They are the best. Detroit, Texas, Florida, Los Angeles and others have good combinations, but none match the prospect status of Papelbon and Lester. Papelbon's big breakout ended in a trip to the Majors, where he went back to his college role, helping out in the Red Sox depleted bullpen. After giving up four earned runs in his first three appearances, Papelbon would settle and get used to the role, allowing just 2 ER in his last 14 innings.

Skillset/Future: The Red Sox are now left with the difficult decision of what to do with Jon Papelbon. It seems as if the team will again start by trying him in the rotation, and if he labors (or the team really needs a reliever) he will move to the bullpen. This is probably the best philosophy, though I don't think that move to the 'pen will have to happen. Papelbon can throw five different pitches, and has found much success (especially against left-handers) with a splitter learned from Curt Schilling. His fastball (92-95 mph) has great control, and Jon also offers a nasty slider. Those three pitches comprise most of what he throws, though he can also offer another breaking pitch and a change up. This guy is nasty, and if his control returns to the levels it was in the minors, don't forget about him in the AL Rookie of the Year race.

42. Dustin Pedroia - 2B/SS - Boston Red Sox - 22 (AAA)

Introduction: We knew the day of the draft that Pedroia was a steal. So, pardon me, for if in the future I go back and criticize teams for not taking Dustin at a higher slot. Forget that he was an older college player with limited potential. This is a guy that had hit .400 in his sophomore season, and topped a .500 OBP in his junior season. In his final two years at Arizona State, Pedroia's OPS was over 1.050. He struck out just 47 times in all of college. Ian Kinsler was blocked because Pedroia was just too good. Yet Dustin slipped to the 65th pick because the best comparisons he could muster were David Eckstein, just because of his tiny height. It's really too bad for all these teams, because by missing out in Pedroia, they missed out in one of the 3 safest picks in the draft.

Skillset/Future: There has been a lot of talk about Dustin this winter, now that the Red Sox middle infield situation is questionable. With Hanley Ramirez now out of the system, and Edgar Renteria traded, it's quite possible that Pedroia will move back to shortstop this season. As a result, the Red Sox will likely fill that hole with just a part-time solution (maybe just Alex Cora), as they wait for Dustin to get a little more seasoning in AAA. They will find he won't need much, as his poor 2005 Pawtucket line can really be blamed on an unlucky .261 BABIP. When that returns to normal levels, expect Pedroia to continue to post high batting averages while showing some of the best plate discipline in professional baseball. Oh, and he has a little pop, too.

50. Craig Hansen - RP - Boston Red Sox - 22 (AAA)

Introduction: Few statements represent the massive ideological change that baseball has undergone in the past 50 years as this: Craig Hansen was heavily considered to be drafted first overall. A reliever. Obviously, no position has undergone a change in such a period as the relief position. Closers are extremely valuable commodities, so much so, that first round picks are now being used on them. We've seen Ryan Wagner, Chad Cordero and Huston Street all picked in the first round. Derrick Lutz and others will do so in the 2006 draft. 2005's best talent was Craig Hansen, who may have the best stuff of any college closer. While Hansen's level of competition wasn't super-high, there was not a more dominating force in college baseball last year.

Skillset/Future: Many have called for the Red Sox to move Hansen back to starting, but I'm not sure this is the best move. How will his stuff hold up for 200 innings? In about 80 innings per year, Hansen has a slider that is unparalleled in the minors. It hits the high-80s consistently, and at times, touches the low 90s. His fastball is about 95-98 mph, and he has very good control of the pitch. Craig does not allow home runs, walk too many batters, or give up very many hits. The Red Sox will make him their closer within two years, and he should succeeding pitching on one of baseball's biggest stages.

一星期前 Baseball America 推出紅襪的新秀排名：

1. Andy Marte, 3b
2. Jon Lester, lhp
3. Jonathan Papelbon, rhp
4. Craig Hansen, rhp
5. Dustin Pedroia, 2b/ss
6. Jacoby Ellsbury, of
7. Kelly Shoppach, c
8. Manny Delcarmen, rhp
9. Jed Lowrie, ss/2b
10. Clay Buchholz, rhp

這個排名的作者是 Jim Callis。RedsoxNation.net 對他進行了訪問，內容相當豐富，對紅襪農場有興趣的人，不可錯過。

幾乎每年要上演一次的 Manny 要求交易，在今晚 Manny 發表願意留在 Boston 後，這場戲暫時告個段落，會不會有續集呢？有興趣的觀眾請期待半年或一年後。請實話，Manny 交易的傳聞，讓這無趣的 off-season 不至於太無趣，但我希望寧願不要再看到這戲碼。

Manny 表示："There will be no trade, I'm staying in Boston, where I'm familiar with the system and where I have a lot of friends, especially David Ortiz." （a lot of friends? 據說你的隊友大半不見了，你還建議 Damon 到洋基去）

不管怎麼說，這是個好消息。就像去年交易大限時，沒有交易掉 Manny 就是最好的交易，現在也是如此。有 David Ortiz 跟 Manny Ramirez 為核心，整個攻擊陣容就容易補。跟去年的打擊陣容比起來，紅襪只差游擊跟中外野手。捕手，右外野，左外野和指定打擊不變。一壘手 Kevin Youkilis 若無意外可以打得比去年的 Kevin Millar 好。二壘手 Mark Loretta 要回到 2004 明星二壘手的成績，要求多了點，但打出去年 Mark Bellhorn 跟 Tony Graffanino 合起來的成績，應該算是容易。三壘手 Mike Lowell 要回到 2003-4 的成績，大概也不容易，但若回升個一半，則跟 Bill Mueller 去年的成績，相去不遠。因此，游擊手跟中外野手，若能至少補強一個。今年的打擊陣容，也不至於差太多。

去年的游擊手 Edgar Renteria 打出 .276/.335/.385 的成績。若紅襪能不動用到那幾個頂級新秀而能換到 Julio Lugo，足以瀰補去年在游擊方面的產量。若不能的話，以 Alex Cora 跟 Dustin Pedoria 共同守游擊，就算較差，也很難再爛多少。我是主張 Cora 為主要先發，Graffanino 在左投時先發，Pedroia 在 AAA 固定游擊先發，季中再調上來。Pedroia 在大學時，可是被選過最佳防守的游擊手，是因為 Hanley Ramirez 的關係，去年才改守二壘。給他半年適應，下半季成為紅襪的先發游擊手，大概不是問題。

中外野手相較下是比較難補上 Johnny Damon 的產量。Jeremy Reed 和 Coco Crisp 是可能的交易對象，但目前要價都很高。在印地安人沒有補到外野手的情況下，要讓印地安人送出 Crisp，代價恐怕太大，應該不會成功。水手的 Reed，最早紅襪提議用 Matt Clement，水手想要 Arroyo，後來則是喊價 Papelbon 或 Lester。紅襪自然不會拿兩個投手新秀去換，若最後能用 Clement/Arroyo + B 級新秀換到，紅襪或許願意。另外，紅襪可以拿 David Wells 去換教士的 Dave Roberts。但教士準備簽下 Shawn Estes，似否仍需要 Wells，則是未知。若願意花錢又願意賭一把的話，可以用 David Wells 跟道奇談 J.D. Drew。Drew 太容易受傷，是個大問號。但當他健康時，他是個比 Damon 更好的球員。若真的去換 Drew，那陣容變成：

2B: Mark Loretta
1B: Kevin Youkilis
DH: David Ortiz
LF: Manny Ramirez
CF: J.D. Drew
C: Jason Varitek
RF: Trot Nixon
3B: Mike Lowell
SS: Alex Cora

陣容不比去年遜色。然後，紅襪可以跟海盜談 Craig Wilson，將是不錯的右手替補外野手。投手方面，雖然在先發跟牛棚上都仍有不少問號，但 Curt Schilling 跟 Keith Foulke 都不容易比去年更差，因此，整體投手實力是有增無減。若 Schilling 跟 Foulke 的實力能恢復，紅襪全隊的戰力，至少在紙上，仍是聯盟數一數二的。

最後，附上 John Sickels 所排的 top 50 hitter 和 top 50 pitcher。在打擊上：

5: Andy Marte
42: Dustin Pedroia

被交易出去的 Hanley Ramirez 這次不在名單中。投手方面：

5: Craig Hansen
8: Jon Lester
9: Jonathan Papelbon

被交易出去的 Anibal Sanchez 排在第 23。希望紅襪之後在補強時，不要動用到這幾名潛力雄厚的新秀。

在這個網站，回答問題後，會顯示你最像紅襪哪個球員。我做出來的是：

You scored as Theo Epstein. Wait a minute, you're not a Red Sox player... you're Theo Epstein! Extremely smart and successful, you work the magic from behind the scenes. You take a lot of risks, but it always works out. You're not too bad on the eyes either!! Theo Epstein 70% Curt Schilling 63% Jason Varitek 57% Kevin Millar 50% David Ortiz 47% Mark Bellhorn 47% Manny Ramirez 43% Johnny Damon 40%

我老婆做出來的是：

You scored as Mark Bellhorn. You are Mark Bellhorn! You are extremely quiet, which makes you mysterious. You don't express your emotions a lot or smile, but when you do it can brighten up a person's day! You are also very humble and nice and don't let your talents, as well as looks, go to your head. Ring my Bellhorn! Mark Bellhorn 73% Curt Schilling 60% Manny Ramirez 57% Theo Epstein 40% Jason Varitek 37% David Ortiz 33% Johnny Damon 30% Kevin Millar 27%

大家又分別像誰？

昨天晚上，令人有點訝意地聽到，洋基跟 Johnny Damon 達成 52M/4Year 的共識，只待體檢通過，Damon 將正式加入洋基。任何紅襪球迷，大概都無法忘記 Damon 在 2004 ALCS 最後一場那支讓勝負底定的滿貫全壘打。Damon 這四年來，無論攻擊或防守，都為紅襪作出極大的貢獻。而他在球技外的造型，idiots 口號，也都深值人心。Thank you, Johnny. You will be missed. However, you still will be booed when you return to the Fenway Park. 如果 Damon 加入的是其它任何隊，他則會受到像 Orlando Cabrera 那樣，全場起立歡迎的場面。這是你的選擇，怨不得誰。

今天球季結束後，紅襪接連失去 Damon，Bill Mueller，Kevin Millar 等，"The 25" 中的重要成員。沒有人會忘記 Mueller 在 2004 ALCS Game 4，紅襪差三個出局就要被掃地出局時，Mueller 打回了那個關鍵的一分，扳平了比數，也才會有接下來的大逆轉。大家大概也會記得那場打架的比賽，Mueller 在九局下，同樣是面對 Mariano Rivera，一支三分全壘打，逆轉了比賽，也成了紅襪 2004 球季的轉捩點。沒有 Damon 那樣的明星氣質，但他總是默默付出，對紅襪的貢獻，並不一定亞於 Damon。隊友們更給他 The Pro 的稱號。Thank you, Bill. You will be missed. And you will get standing ovation when you are back to the Fenway Park。

Kevin Millar 由於打擊成績的退化，今年球季變成了球迷攻擊的目標。不同於 Byung-Hyun Kim 或 Keith Foulke，Millar 對於球迷的指責，應對地相當不錯。我甚至覺得，由於他成為眾矢之的，讓其它紅襪球員，少被騷擾，也算是貢獻。當然，我也不會忘記，2004 ALCS Game 4 九局下，Dave Roberts 的 "The Steal"，要先歸功於 Millar 能夠四壞保送上壘。而就算說 Millar 這三年來，攻守的表現不夠好，但他對這整個隊球隊氣氛的影響卻是相當大。Cowboy Up，剔光頭等，讓紅襪打出了士氣。而由於他的存在，Manny Ramirez 似乎也比以前放得開。Thank you, Millar！既然好像沒有球隊要你，要不要回紅襪當吉祥物，工作只負責讓 Manny 開心就好。

回到洋基將簽下 Damon 的消息。我向來不主張跟 Damon 續約，因此這對我來說，不是什麼壞消息。當然，他去的是洋基，還是多少令人不舒服。看到今天各方的反應，尤其是許多紅襪迷的反應，似乎世界末日到了，讓我有點驚訝。我當然能理解球迷的反應，總希望球隊每年都能有好的成績，而 Damon 加入洋基，就明年的實力來說，洋基當然增強了，而紅襪也明顯變弱。所以呢？大家希望紅襪出那樣的價錢留下 Damon 嗎？紅襪雖然有錢，但比起洋基，畢竟就是差上一截。雖然紅襪去年的總薪資為全聯盟第二高，但跟第一名的洋基卻還差了超過 80M。若紅襪想以 outbid 洋基的方式來跟洋基競爭，結果就是實力越差越遠。銀子比別人少，就得花得精明，就得用不同的方法去競爭，才可能獲勝。

紅襪這三年來的成功，可以說是有點不可思議。在自家養出來的球員很少的情況下，靠著簽下 David Ortiz，Bill Muller，Kevin Millar，Mark Bellhorn 等薪水不貴的球員，加上之前簽下的明星 Manny Ramirez 和 Johnny Damon，及原有的 Nomar Garciaparra，Trot Nixon，Jason Varitek，連續三年得分領先全聯盟。你無法期待撿到 David Ortiz 這種好康的事一再發生。單靠簽下 FA 來維持球隊的競爭力，洋基或許辦得到，但即使如紅襪這樣有錢的球隊，並不容易辦到。當然，可以試著多去撿一些像 Mueller, Bellhorn, Millar 這樣的球員，但從自家農場栽培出一批新秀，卻幾乎是必須的。紅襪這三年來，難能可貴的是，既保持競爭力，又加強了農場。Jon Lester，Craig Hansen，Manny Delcarmen，Dustin Pedroia，Andy Marte，這些人可能再一兩年，都可以成為紅襪的主力。要把錢花在這一兩年的空檔期，還是一兩後再花，那就是見仁見智的建軍哲學了。

如果水手仍有興趣，仍願意用 Jeremy Reed 換 Bronson Arroyo，我希望紅襪趕緊讓它成真。Jeremy Reed 當然無法取代 Johnny Damon，但才廿四歲的他，仍有很大的進步空間。說不定一兩年後，他的表現已經可以跟 Damon 相比。就算沒有辦法，紅襪小聯盟也還有一些年輕的外野手，就算都沒養成，一兩年後，紅襪其它新秀站穩大聯盟，再來補強中外野，也不見得遲。之前另一個謠言是印地安人的 Coco Crisp。能換到他當然好，但據說要價高，而且在印地安人沒簽下 Nomar 的情況下，這交易的可能性大概不大。除此之外，紅襪還可以拿 David Wells 跟道奇換左手一壘手 Hee-Seop Choi，在道奇簽下 Nomar 當一壘手後，Choi 是可能用來被交易的籌碼。另外，教士從游騎兵換來的 Adrian Gonzalez 也是可以考慮的對象。但據說，教士打算留下他。若能留下 Manny，而換來 Reed 和 Choi，我們明年的陣容可能是：

2B Mark Loretta
1B Kevin Youkilis / Choi
DH David Ortiz
LF Manny Ramirez
RF Trot Nixon
3B Mike Lowell
C Jason Varitek
CF: Jeremy Reed
SS: ........

雖然比不上洋基的陣容，但跟其它各隊比，也算是不錯的了，明年也還有一定的競爭力。據今天下午紅襪記者會的說法，將把多出的錢再投資到別的地方。想到的一個可能是，Roger Clemens。一年 18-20M，Damon + Wells + Arroyo 省下的錢，剛好差不多。我不是 Clemens 的球迷，但若 Clemens 在退休前，來紅襪修補關係，戴著紅襪帽子進入名人堂，也算不錯的局面。在這種情況下，明年的先發有：

Roger Clemens
Curt Schilling
Josh Beckett
Matt Clement
Tim Wakefield
Jonathan Papelbon

看來來相當整齊。若 Keith Foulke 無法健康回來，Papelbon 也可以先當終結者。而 Jon Lester 也可能在明年下半季，加入先發或後援。紅襪大概不會是最強的隊，但仍應該是具一定實力的競爭隊伍。

若錢太多，願意花 18-20M 簽 Roger Clemens 一年，怎麼不乾脆 overpay Johnny Damon 就好？Clemens 只是一年，不管結果好不好，就只影響到一年。若續簽 Damon，明年結束後，Damon 將享有 10/5 的權利，之後若走下坡，紅襪想換他走，還得經過他同意。

總之，希望紅襪球團是有他們的計畫，而照著計畫在走。那即使這一兩年陣容不如前幾年，紅襪的前途仍是光明的。

這個傳了幾天的謠言，今天接近中午就傳出交易完成。初聽到這個消息，感覺蠻不錯的。但過了約一個小時，傳來紅襪同時付出 11M，倒是有點不敢相信。

在今年 FA 市場價格飛漲的情況下，Edgar Renteria 剩下三年 29M 的合約，已經不是 overpaid。想想 Rafael Furcal 剛簽下三年 39M，也並不是比 Renteria 好多少的球員。原本以為，在勇士急需游擊手的情況下，用 Renteria 去搶劫，實在不錯。但在必須幫忙付 11M 的情況下，這交易看起來對雙方就蠻公平的。

勇士付每年 6M 的薪水使用 Renteria，當然是相當划算，但他們付出的代價是他們小聯盟的第一號新秀 Andy Marte。Marte 是三壘手，被 BA 列為小聯盟新秀第九名，BP 甚至列他為第一名。勇士之所以願意將他交易出去，自然是因為 Chipper Jones 擋住他的路，就跟之前紅襪願意把 Hanley Ramirez 換出去一樣的意思。對勇士來說，把這幾年無法用到的 Marte 換出去（據說他還不肯換守備位置），而能便宜使用一個不錯的游擊手，對接下來兩年，自然是有利的。況且，小聯盟新秀畢竟只是新秀，最後能不能在大聯盟放光采，誰也不敢說。對勇士來說，這交易應該是求取穩定的作法。不過，一樣是三壘手，不禁令人想起，Wade Boggs 跟 Jeff Bagwell 就是了。

對紅襪來說，這是不是個好交易，那還很難說，得看接下來他們怎麼補游擊這個洞。之前因為 Renteria 擋住 Hanley Ramirez，而將 H.R. 交易出去，是很合理的情況。只是沒想到，一個月不到，紅襪竟將 Renteria 也交易出去。我相信，紅襪原本並沒有交易 Renteria 的打算，但在看到勇士願意用 Marte 換 Julio Lugo，才興起拿 Renteria 去交易的念頭。我不知道紅襪的算盤是什麼。這個交易增強了農場的實力，但卻讓游擊方面的戰力出缺，做這個交易，對明年的戰力只會減少，不會增加。我向來不排斥在不增加實力的情況下，維持些許競爭力，渡過一兩年。但是看球團目前的作法，並不像是朝這個方向在前進，而比較像是年年想有蠻強的競爭力，因此來了 Josh Beckett，Mark Loretta 等人。球隊的方向往哪邊走，這交易是不是無厘頭的即興演出，得看球團接下來的動作才知道。

回到游擊手出缺這個問題，紅襪必需找到一個明年的先發游擊手。身為 #5 的球迷，第一選擇，自然是繼續作夢，Nomar 回來當游擊手。夢可以作，但也不得不面對一下現實的狀況，Nomar 可能已不俱備守游擊的能力，而去年夏天的傷痕大概也永遠無法瀰補。在跟紅襪交易之前，勇士打算拿 Andy Marte 跟魔鬼魚換 Julio Lugo，卻被拒絕，要求再加個新秀捕手。雖然換了 GM，好像貪心的程度並沒有減少，只剩一年的 Lugo 可以換到 Marte，居然不滿足。之前曾傳出，紅襪可能用 Marte 再加人去換 Lugo。若真這樣做，表示付 11M 再加新秀，把 Renteria 換成 Lugo，那我們可以直接宣佈紅襪的 front office 瘋了。

後來傳出，紅襪打算留著 Marte 自己用，而將在 FA 找個游擊手來用。聽到 Marte 不被換出去，那自然是好事。但是，從 FA 找個游擊手來？甚至不少人傳出紅襪打算簽 Alex Gonzalez。有沒有搞錯？生涯 OBP .291！那不如直接讓 Alex Cora 先發，他的生涯 OBP 還有 .310。說真的，若 FA 有可用之兵，勇士又何必送出 Marte？

後來傳出 Muguel Tejada 要求被交易。當然，缺少游擊手的紅襪，自然被各項謠言所擊中。Tejada 應該是目前全聯盟最好的游擊手（或許該說，在目前守游擊的選手中，thanks to Jeter），他在 FA 價格低迷時簽下的年薪 12M 更顯得物超所值。若能得到 Tejada，那自然是好事，但可以預期，必須付出不少代價。Manny Ramirez 絕對換不回 Tejada，Manny 的薪水較多，而且在守備上也有不小的差別。再多加一個頂級新秀，大概都還換不到。如果紅襪目前那群助理 GM 真能變什麼戲法，不花太大代價而得到 Tejada，那當然最好，只是可能性也小了點。另一個可能的交易對象是 Orlando Cabrera。他也算是被 overpaid，而天使有不少游擊新秀等著上來，天使可能願意把他換出去。

我認為最後不得已下的最佳狀況是，讓 Alex Cora 跟 Dustin Pedoria 一起守游擊。即使今年季中，Alex Cora 只要略常上場，我總要唸一下。但是在 FA 沒有好東西，交易代價大概又會太高的情況下，還不如就這樣勉強渡過一個球季。付了 Renteria 部份的薪水後，還是有剩下一些錢，就投資在別的地方吧。雖然我向來不主張跟 Johnny Damon 續約，但若打算維持競爭力的話，最後大概就不得跟 Damon 屈服了，不然，一下子有兩個洞出來，可能略多了點。

連續兩天各一個交易。各項謠言還很多，我們還有很多戲可以看。

這幾天一直傳說的一個謠言，今天下午成真。根據 Boston Herald 的報導，紅襪將替補捕手 Mirabelli 交易到教士隊，換成二壘手 Loretta。但這交易要等到教士隊搞定他們的終結者 Trevor Hoffman 後才會宣布。

這一交易，大概將讓 Pedoria 明年在 3A 再磨一陣子（甚至移回游擊？）。Loretta 的約到明年，年薪 3M。Mirabelli 也是明年到期，年薪 1.5M。就替補捕手來說，Mirabelli 可能是全聯盟最好的之一，而且他跟 Tim Wakefield 合作了幾年，勝任愉快。送走了 Mirabelli，據傳，紅襪將在 FA 簽一個替補捕手。我是希望直接用 Kelly Shoppach 就好，他守備向來不錯，應該可以接得上來。但或許紅襪認為他經驗還不夠，接蝴蝶球有點冒險。（其實，Varitek 剛上來時，他也是當替捕，接 Wakefield）

這幾天還有很多謠言。昨天就有風聲說，今天會有一些動作。今年的先發九人，除了 Jason Varitek 跟 David Ortiz，要不是成為 FA，就是被謠言掃到。先發投手中，也有三個可能被交易。我們就靜觀事情怎麼發展。