February 22,2009
影片和廣播: 美國次貸危機概論
By 小河馬
造成金融風暴的美國次貸危機，外行的我當初花了一番功夫去了解。美國公共廣播電台 NPR 在星期六下午有個節目叫 "This American Life"，在 2008 年十月的事情剛發生的時候，製作了一個一小時的節目，主題是 "Another Frightening Show About the Economy"，針對一般社會大眾，解說到底次貸危機是什麼，又是怎麼發生的，也訪問了相關的人。我覺得是所接觸到的相關資訊中，最簡明卻又夠有深度的報導，而且不需要有金融知識也可以聽得懂。很推薦給想要了解次貸危機的人!
其實這個節目，是銜接著之前在 2008 年五月播出的一個主題: "The Giant Pool of Money"，在事情爆發之前，就已經有人開始在擔心房貸問題會拉垮金融，所以這一集在談美國房貸和因著美國房貸而衍生的新興金融商品的問題，基本上可以說是 "Another Frightening Show About the Economy" 的上集，讓我們一般人理解到事情的遠因和將影響的範圍，也是非常受歡迎的一集。
上集，次貸風暴發生前，五月所播的 "The Giant Pool of Money":
http://www.thisamericanlife.org/Radio_Episode.aspx?episode=355
下集，次貸風暴在九月爆發之後所播的 "Another Frightening Show About the Economy:
http://www.thisamericanlife.org/Radio_Episode.aspx?episode=365
基於房價會上漲的前提假設，全世界很多錢都投資在美國的房貸，銀行以非常寬鬆的條件借錢給貸款者，幾乎可以說是，"只怕你不跟我們借，我們一定要借你"，導致後來連貸款者的收入證明都形同虛設，隨便你填月收入或年收入是多少，沒有查證，也不像過去有專業的會計師或XX師會評估說這樣的職業有這樣的收入可不可信，意思就是隨便你編，我鼓勵你說謊編造，反正我要借你就對了... 至於為什麼銀行敢這樣冒險借錢給信用不好的人呢? 這就是為什麼今天大家都會死得很慘的重點了，請自己看以下的影片或聽廣播。這個影片以更淺白生動的圖說，解釋次貸危機，比廣播講的當然簡化一些，但也更直截了當，影像的力量是很大的，還蠻值得看的。
http://vimeo.com/3261363
The Crisis of Credit Visualized from Jonathan Jarvis on Vimeo.
造成金融風暴的美國次貸危機，外行的我當初花了一番功夫去了解。美國公共廣播電台 NPR 在星期六下午有個節目叫 "This American Life"，在 2008 年十月的事情剛發生的時候，製作了一個一小時的節目，主題是 "Another Frightening Show About the Economy"，針對一般社會大眾，解說到底次貸危機是什麼，又是怎麼發生的，也訪問了相關的人。我覺得是所接觸到的相關資訊中，最簡明卻又夠有深度的報導，而且不需要有金融知識也可以聽得懂。很推薦給想要了解次貸危機的人!
其實這個節目，是銜接著之前在 2008 年五月播出的一個主題: "The Giant Pool of Money"，在事情爆發之前，就已經有人開始在擔心房貸問題會拉垮金融，所以這一集在談美國房貸和因著美國房貸而衍生的新興金融商品的問題，基本上可以說是 "Another Frightening Show About the Economy" 的上集，讓我們一般人理解到事情的遠因和將影響的範圍，也是非常受歡迎的一集。
上集，次貸風暴發生前，五月所播的 "The Giant Pool of Money":
http://www.thisamericanlife.org/Radio_Episode.aspx?episode=355
下集，次貸風暴在九月爆發之後所播的 "Another Frightening Show About the Economy:
http://www.thisamericanlife.org/Radio_Episode.aspx?episode=365
基於房價會上漲的前提假設，全世界很多錢都投資在美國的房貸，銀行以非常寬鬆的條件借錢給貸款者，幾乎可以說是，"只怕你不跟我們借，我們一定要借你"，導致後來連貸款者的收入證明都形同虛設，隨便你填月收入或年收入是多少，沒有查證，也不像過去有專業的會計師或XX師會評估說這樣的職業有這樣的收入可不可信，意思就是隨便你編，我鼓勵你說謊編造，反正我要借你就對了... 至於為什麼銀行敢這樣冒險借錢給信用不好的人呢? 這就是為什麼今天大家都會死得很慘的重點了，請自己看以下的影片或聽廣播。這個影片以更淺白生動的圖說，解釋次貸危機，比廣播講的當然簡化一些，但也更直截了當，影像的力量是很大的，還蠻值得看的。
http://vimeo.com/3261363
The Crisis of Credit Visualized from Jonathan Jarvis on Vimeo.
February 16,2009
經濟學人: 台灣經濟受創最嚴重
經濟學人雜誌前幾天發表了這篇文章，在他們持續觀察的55個國家中，極端仰賴出口的台灣受到全球經濟危機的衝擊最大，生產劇降，出口滑落44%。
文章來源在這裡:
http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13109874
ECONOMIST
Feb. 12, 2009
The ugliest economy of them all?
WHICH economy has been hit hardest by the global slump? In its back pages and on its website The Economist tracks 55 countries each week. Based on industrial production, Taiwan has suffered much the biggest shock. Output fell by 32% in the 12 months to December; in the fourth quarter it plunged at an annual rate of 62%. GDP figures, due on February 18th, will be grim.
Taiwan is one of the world’s most export-dependent economies, making many high-tech gadgets for Western consumers, so it has been battered by the slump in global demand. Exports plunged by a record 44% in the year to January. The slide in exports has been exacerbated by a drying up of trade credit. This partly explains why imports also fell by 57% over the period. Exports may therefore partly recover as credit improves. But Taiwan’s competitiveness has been eroded by its relatively strong currency. The New Taiwan dollar has appreciated by more than 40% against the South Korean won since the start of 2008.
Exports to China have declined by 59% over the past year, twice as fast as exports to America. Sales to China (over one-quarter of the total) consist largely of electronic components, and have been hit by massive Chinese destocking. The island’s electronics industry is enduring its worst-ever slump. Cheng Cheng-mount, a Taipei-based economist with Citibank, points out that Taiwan’s mainstay exports, such as flat-screen monitors and semiconductors, were in oversupply even before the global financial crisis. Now, he estimates, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, the world’s biggest contract chipmaker, is running at around 35% of capacity.
Falling exports have, in turn, squeezed domestic spending. Unemployment rose to a six-year high of 5% in December, and the true picture may be far bleaker. Taiwanese companies tend to wait until after the lunar new year holiday before swinging the axe. Average wages have also fallen by 5% in real terms over the past year. Many companies are ordering employees to take unpaid leave. The volume of retail sales slumped by 11% in the year to December.
Even before the financial crisis, household spending had seen the weakest growth rate among the East Asian tigers. One reason is that people with the spending power are elsewhere. Over the past eight years, around 1m Taiwanese business executives, who form much of the island’s moneyed managerial class, have moved to China to run factories there. Several economists are now forecasting that Taiwan’s GDP will contract by 3% or more this year, which would be the steepest downturn in Taiwan’s history. By far the gloomiest is CLSA, a broking firm, which is predicting a horrendous 11% drop in 2009.
To prop up the economy, the central bank has cut interest rates six times since September, to 1.5%. The government also plans a fiscal stimulus of infrastructure investment, consumer handouts and tax cuts worth around 3% of GDP in 2009. To boost consumer spending, the government is giving each citizen a voucher worth NT$3,600 ($106). But many economists are sceptical about whether this will produce much new spending. According to Chen Miao, an economist with the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research, a similar cash-handout scheme in Japan resulted in only 30% of recipients spending more than they had already planned. Anecdotal evidence so far paints a brighter picture. Department stores and supermarkets reported that sales over the lunar new year holiday were 10-20% higher than in 2008.
In the longer term, improved ties with China will benefit the economy. For example, says Mr Chen, more direct flights between Taiwan and China should help. If Taiwan-based businessmen came home every quarter instead of every six months, it could boost ailing consumption. For now, however, Taiwan’s frightful economic news is more likely to encourage households to save rather than spend.
文章來源在這裡:
http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13109874
ECONOMIST
Feb. 12, 2009
The ugliest economy of them all?
WHICH economy has been hit hardest by the global slump? In its back pages and on its website The Economist tracks 55 countries each week. Based on industrial production, Taiwan has suffered much the biggest shock. Output fell by 32% in the 12 months to December; in the fourth quarter it plunged at an annual rate of 62%. GDP figures, due on February 18th, will be grim.
Taiwan is one of the world’s most export-dependent economies, making many high-tech gadgets for Western consumers, so it has been battered by the slump in global demand. Exports plunged by a record 44% in the year to January. The slide in exports has been exacerbated by a drying up of trade credit. This partly explains why imports also fell by 57% over the period. Exports may therefore partly recover as credit improves. But Taiwan’s competitiveness has been eroded by its relatively strong currency. The New Taiwan dollar has appreciated by more than 40% against the South Korean won since the start of 2008.
Exports to China have declined by 59% over the past year, twice as fast as exports to America. Sales to China (over one-quarter of the total) consist largely of electronic components, and have been hit by massive Chinese destocking. The island’s electronics industry is enduring its worst-ever slump. Cheng Cheng-mount, a Taipei-based economist with Citibank, points out that Taiwan’s mainstay exports, such as flat-screen monitors and semiconductors, were in oversupply even before the global financial crisis. Now, he estimates, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, the world’s biggest contract chipmaker, is running at around 35% of capacity.
Falling exports have, in turn, squeezed domestic spending. Unemployment rose to a six-year high of 5% in December, and the true picture may be far bleaker. Taiwanese companies tend to wait until after the lunar new year holiday before swinging the axe. Average wages have also fallen by 5% in real terms over the past year. Many companies are ordering employees to take unpaid leave. The volume of retail sales slumped by 11% in the year to December.
Even before the financial crisis, household spending had seen the weakest growth rate among the East Asian tigers. One reason is that people with the spending power are elsewhere. Over the past eight years, around 1m Taiwanese business executives, who form much of the island’s moneyed managerial class, have moved to China to run factories there. Several economists are now forecasting that Taiwan’s GDP will contract by 3% or more this year, which would be the steepest downturn in Taiwan’s history. By far the gloomiest is CLSA, a broking firm, which is predicting a horrendous 11% drop in 2009.
To prop up the economy, the central bank has cut interest rates six times since September, to 1.5%. The government also plans a fiscal stimulus of infrastructure investment, consumer handouts and tax cuts worth around 3% of GDP in 2009. To boost consumer spending, the government is giving each citizen a voucher worth NT$3,600 ($106). But many economists are sceptical about whether this will produce much new spending. According to Chen Miao, an economist with the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research, a similar cash-handout scheme in Japan resulted in only 30% of recipients spending more than they had already planned. Anecdotal evidence so far paints a brighter picture. Department stores and supermarkets reported that sales over the lunar new year holiday were 10-20% higher than in 2008.
In the longer term, improved ties with China will benefit the economy. For example, says Mr Chen, more direct flights between Taiwan and China should help. If Taiwan-based businessmen came home every quarter instead of every six months, it could boost ailing consumption. For now, however, Taiwan’s frightful economic news is more likely to encourage households to save rather than spend.
![[Syndicate this site]](http://cdn.rimg.tw/images/blog/rss.gif "Syndicate RSS feed"){kind=small}
![[Syndicate this site]](http://cdn.rimg.tw/images/blog/atom.gif "Syndicate ATOM feed"){kind=small}
